Saturday is November 1.

November 1 marks the start of the last month of college football.

The stretch run will make some and break some. It can be the difference between a playoff berth and a trip to the Alamo Bowl. It can be the difference between the Citrus Bowl and the Pop Tart Bowl. It could be the difference between a new contract for a coach or a pink slip that puts you on a long, long list of unemployed coaches.

November 1 means it is go time.

It also means it is time to take what I learned, what I got right, what I got wrong, and mix it together and give you my Two Cents on the college football season.

  • Did you notice Navy is 7-0? The Midshipmen could get the Group of Five playoff bid. They won’t. As a matter of fact,  Navy could lose 4 straight starting this Saturday at North Texas. Hopefully I get this wrong. If a Group of Five team must be included, Navy would be a tremendous story. I think the bid will go to either Memphis or Boise State.
  • There is a very plausible scenario where Miami goes to the playoffs but not the ACC Championship. Who had Virginia and Georgia Tech playing for a playoff berth in Charlotte? I think Georgia Tech will run the ACC table and then give Georgia all they can handle in their rivalry game. Would the committee deny an 11-2 Georgia Tech if they lose to Georgia and then in the ACC Championship Game? I would hope not, but it wouldn’t surprise me.
  •   I think Virginia loses at Cal Saturday, and again at Duke. That still doesn’t assure Miami a berth. With the loss to Louisville, the Cardinals own the tiebreaker. Louisville will be favored in the rest of their games. A playoff berth for Louisville is a real possibility.
  • With all of these coaching openings, I would think Jeff Brohm’s phone is ringing.
  • The team that could affect the playoffs the most in the ACC without making it into the bracket? Pitt. The Panthers finish the season with games against Georgia Tech, Notre Dame, and Miami. The Panthers have found their groove with freshman quarterback Mason Heintschel. Pat Narduzzi must avoid his usual collapse, which would be so unlike him.
  •  Miami should run the table and make the playoffs one way or the other. However, “should” and Mario Cristobal don’t always gel. 
  • I have no clue who is going to win the Big 12. I do know that Texas Tech is the best team. The Red Raiders only loss was at Arizona State, a game they played without their starting quarterback. I think they play either BYU, who they will beat in two weeks, or Houston, who they already beat. Texas Tech would be a lot like Arizona State was a year ago. I wouldn’t sleep on them if their name appears in your bracket.
  • It may not be the SEC, but the Big 12 is becoming a very solid conference with a lot of teams competing.
  • Could you ever imagine a scenario where Vanderbilt plays Tennessee in the last game of the season for a chance to go to the SEC Championship Game and/or playoffs? Well, if Vandy can go on the road and beat the most overrated team in America, Texas, that will most likely be the case.
  • Vandy in the championship game isn’t going to happen.
  • Texas A&M and Alabama are two of the four best teams in the country. They will both win out and face each other in Atlanta.
  •  How hard will Greg Sankey stump for playoff bids for his conference. There is a very real chance Texas A&M, Alabama, Ole Miss, Georgia, and maybe Vanderbilt finish with two losses or less. This is a scenario where that second ACC team potentially gets the shaft.
  • The Big Ten remains top heavy, minus the shockingly bad Penn State Nittany Lions.
  •  Ohio State and Indiana look like good bets to be undefeated and squaring off in Indianapolis for the Big Ten title. That is if Ohio State can put an end to their Michigan problem. I think the Buckeyes beat Michigan handily this year.
  •  Oregon will get a playoff berth unless they lose at home to USC. USC would get that berth and Oregon would go on the bubble if the Trojans win and then win out.
  • Notre Dame, as always, is the wildcard. The Irish can’t afford another loss. No worries. Notre Dame’s remaining schedule is essentially a series of controlled scrimmages. Pitt in Pittsburgh is the closest thing to a tricky game for Notre Dame. The Irish are clearly a playoff team.
  • I think Ohio State and Notre Dame are the two best teams in the country, with Texas A&M and Alabama just below them.
  •  I believe Oregon is overrated, but probably still get in by beating USC.
  • Indiana, Mississippi, Miami, and Texas Tech could make things really interesting come late December.
  • Unfortunately for the sport —although they did it to themselves— the coaching carousel is going to steal the headlines come December. Already Penn State, LSU, and Florida are big time programs searching for a coach. Florida State, Kentucky, and Auburn are likely to join them. Plus Arkansas, UCLA, Stanford, Oregon State, and Virginia Tech are on the search for a new coach. Other teams may hold on to their coach —think Luke Fickell and Mike Locksley— because they won’t have much to choose from after the dust settles. And what if Steve Sarkisian, despite his vociferous denial, goes to the NFL?
  • With all the money being spent on facilities and players, the coaches are being sent the message, “Win or else.” Despite cries of losing money, schools are showing a willingness to pay big, big numbers to have a coach NOT coach for them. It is insane.
  • Can anyone lure Urban Meyer out of retirement and away from his TV gig? Meyer is the closest thing to a sure thing. Penn State, LSU, and Florida are definitely looking for a home run hire. So, too, will Auburn and Florida State if they end up with openings. Otherwise, it will be a glorious chaotic crapshoot.
  • Lane Kiffin could and should be coveted by many, but he hasn’t won anything yet in his career.
  • An agent like Jimmy Sexton is in all his glory right about now shuffling his client cards and seeing where he can place them —and most importantly to him how much money he can get them.
  • There are a lot of big games yet to be played and more coaches yet to be fired. I look for Ohio State and Notre Dame to have a rematch, this time in Miami. And round and round the coaching carousel goes, where she stops nobody —except Jimmy Sexton— knows.

Enjoy the football. Enjoy the chaos.

Tweet of the Week

For the love of God, someone hire this man again.

 

The Weekly Shiny Penny

This man is 38 years old and is playing as well as anyone in the league to start the season. The gift that keeps on giving.


A Penny For My Final Thought…

Mike Tomlin must go.

It is over. It has been over.

Chuck Noll coached 23 years, and he probably hung on too long. The Steelers missed the playoffs six out of Noll’s final seven seasons after reaching the AFC Championship Game in 1984 with Mark Malone at quarterback. Dan Rooney wasn’t going to fire a legend. Noll won four Super Bowls, which earned him the right to leave when he chose to leave.

Bill Cowher coached the Steelers for 15 years, making the playoffs in his first six seasons. Cowher’s problem wasn’t sticking around too long as much as it was failing to win the big games. Cowher lost one Super Bowl and four conference championships before securing his only Super Bowl ring. 

Tomlin is in year 19, and it has been a painful grind of late. Tomlin has won one playoff game in the last 14 seasons since losing the  2010 Super Bowl. One. His failure to win only one playoff game from 2014 to 2017 withe the talent he was working with will go down as one of the great failures in team history.

The only thing left for Tomlin to hang his hat on is the no losing season streak, which is one of the hollowest streaks ever. I stick up for Tomlin when people say he won his Super Bowl with Cowher’s players. People forget Cowher went 8-8 with those players in his final season. Tomlin’s new voice pushed that team to new heights. He deserves credit for that.

That voice is stale now. 19 years is a long time. His message isn’t resonating anymore. Lack of discipline continues to rear its ugly head. Tomlin’s stubbornness digs the hole deeper. His refusal to hire quality coordinators digs the hole deeper.  He has been given too much power, which leads to things like drafting Kenny Pickett in the first round.

It is over.

Someone will have to nudge Art Rooney awake and let him know conversations will need to be had.

Tomlin may be the best rally the troops coach I’ve ever seen. He wins 9 or 10 games in the face of much adversity and crappy quarterback play. He isn’t rallying anyone this year. The same problems continue to occur. Money was ill spent on defenders past their prime. Wide receivers are still a problem. No adjustments are made, and even Tomlin admitted that for whatever reason they are limited this year schematically. Look at the remaining schedule. It isn’t out of the realm of possibility that the Steelers won’t win another game. They almost certainly won’t reach nine wins.

It is the perfect time for a fresh start. New coach. New system. Tons of draft capital. Go get a quarterback to build an offense around, an actual offense. The offensive line is coming into their own. They have good young tight ends and running backs. The Steelers do need to find their next franchise quarterback.

The defense, well, it is historic as Mike Tomlin thought it would be. Historically bad. Yet there are young players like Derrick Harmon, Nick Herbig, Payton Wilson, and Joey Porter to build around.

If Rooney is waiting for Tomlin to have a losing season to make some sort of justification for changing coaches, he is about to get his wish. More likely, Tomlin will bow out and save face.

We have all seen enough. It is over.

The standard hasn’t been the standard for far too long.

Mike Tomlin must go.

Just my two cents…