Don't you know I'm still standing better than I ever did
Looking like a true survivor, feeling like a little kid
I'm still standing after all this time

                                            — Elton John

Sixteen teams are still standing. Quite possibly, not the sixteen teams you suspected would be standing. Certainly if you followed my lead, your bracket may have some unexpected slashes.

One thing remains certain. Despite the sometimes ugly landscape of college basketball created by the portal and NIL, the NCAA Tournamemt —aka March Madness— is still the greatest sporting event of the year. The Super Bowl may be a bigger event as a stand alone game, but the NCAA Tournament just gave us four straight days of joy. Oh, and there are two weeks left.

So far we have had a half court shot bank in to send a game to overtime and propel that team to victory. We had a half court shot bank in and pop back out to end one of the best games of the first two rounds. Although there aren’t any real Cinderella teams —much like last year— we had plenty of shocking results and great endings. That includes the defending champs continuing the trend of not making the Sweet Sixteen. Aside from UConn repeating as champs in 2024, no defending champ has made the second weekend in ten years.

The Big Ten hasn’t won a national championship since 2000. Could this be the year? The conference claimed 6 of the 16 spots in the Sweet Sixteen. The SEC claimed 4 spots, the Big 12 secured 3 spots, the Big East took 2, and the once vaunted ACC with just 1.

There are plenty of quality storylines remaining. Who would say no to Rick Pitino vs John Calipari in the final game? Iowa State, down its best player, is still alive to break the nearly 80 year drought of making the Final Four. The only thing not on Kelvin Sampson’s resume is a national title. Florida has been removed from his path to the finals. And what about Nebraska? Fred Hoiberg, his son, and the Cornhuskers have become America’s darling. The Huskers won their first ever tournament game, and now have a great chance to —at minimum— reach the Elite Eight.

Although my bracket is busted thanks to —of all teams— Iowa, my guy Two Cent Cracked Crystal Ball stopped by to analyze what’s left. We hit the reset button and have some thoughts on the remainder of the tournament.

East Region

  • (5)St. John’s vs (1)Duke
  • (3)Michigan St. vs (2)UConn

Duke spent most of the first two games trying to find their stride. Sixteen seed Siena held the lead against Duke for approximately 34 minutes before the Dookies did just enough to avoid an embarrassing loss. It took until the second half against TCU for Duke to finally look like Duke. It should be noted that the Blue Devils got their usual friendly whistle.

St. John’s needed a buzzer beating layup from Dylan Darling to dismiss Bill Self and Kansas from the tournament. Michigan State was probably fortunate that Louisville played without lottery pick point guard Mikel Brown. The Spartans had major turnover issues. UConn had two solid, if not spectacular, wins over Furman and UCLA.

What happens now?

  • Regional Headline: Coaches. Pitino, Hurley, Izzo, and Scheyer
  • The favorite: Duke
  • Regional final we all want to see: St. John’s vs UConn part IV
  • Best storyline: Rick Pitino trying to take yet another school to the Final Four

Who wins?

St. John’s over UConn

My partner and I are changing our minds. Maybe we are suckers for a great story. Maybe it is the fact I think Rick Pitino is the best coach in the game. I think St. John’s suffocating defense, led by their full court pressure will bring Duke to submission. Duke has been playing in a weak ACC and has not looked stellar thus far.

UConn will handle Michigan State in a heavyweight fight. The Spartans have been too turnover prone.

Then the Red Storm will put the final nail in UConn’s coffin in the final. Betting against a senior laden team led by Danny Hurley makes me nervous, but St. John’s has proven UConn doesn’t worry them.

Regardless of what happens in the Final Four, it will be one of college basketball’s best resurrections. St. John’s will move on to the Final Four.

South Region

  • (9)Iowa vs (4)Nebraska
  • (3)Illinois vs (2)Houston

The Big Ten comes to Houston. A Farm Belt special in one game and a battle of offense vs defense in the other game. With Florida eliminated and the regional being played in Houston may give the Cougs an advantage. As for one seed Florida, head coach Todd Golden will have to explain to me really, really slowly why he would be pressing up two late. A press that had already given Iowa a bunch of open looks with throw aheads. Or maybe he can simply continue to be completely unlikable.

What happens now?

  • Regional Headline: Will it be the Big Ten Invitational?
  • The favorite: Houston
  • Regional Final we all want to see: Anything with Nebraska
  • Best storyline: With all due respect to Iowa and to Kelvin Sampson, Nebraska is THE storyline.

Who wins?

I would love nothing more than Nebraska and the best fan base in college sports making it to Indianapolis. I think the Huskers will outshoot Iowa to get to the Elite Eight.

In the other game, I like offense over defense. I really think Illinois is rolling right now. Houston has been playing really well, too, and will have a home crowd advantage. Illinois will get the better of a Houston team that wasn’t a typical Sampson style team.

In a Big Ten rematch, I want to pick Nebraska but have to go with the Illini. Brad Underwood’s group is firing on all cylinders. In a game likely to be in the 80’s Illinois will head to Indianapolis. A magical run for Nebraska will end in the Elite Eight. Illinois will reach the Final Four for the first time in 21 years.

West Region

  • (4)Arkansas vs (1)Arizona
  • (11)Texas vs (2)Purdue

Texas can hardly be considered a Cinderella, but they are the highest seed left and had to play in the First Four. The other three teams left in this region are all capable of winning the whole thing. Arkansas, along with St. John’s and UConn, was one of my preseason Final Four picks. They can really go. However, Arizona and Purdue are real heavyweights. Arizona has been the best team in the country for most of this season.

What happens now?

  • Regional headline: Guards Paradise-Braedon Smith, Darius Acuff, Braden Burries and Jaden Bradley
  • The favorite: Arizona, by a hair
  • Regional Final we all want to see: Arizona vs Arkansas. Oh wait we get that one in the regional semifinal.
  • Best storyline: Coach Cal trying for a fourth team to the Final Four

Who wins?

Truth be told, I have no earthly idea. I picked Arkansas in the preseason, and they are so athletic and Darius Acuff is an absolute stud. It is hard to believe someone can outlast the Razorbacks. Arizona, however, has been the best team all year long. Tommy Lloyd hasn’t proved he can advance this far and Arizona hasn’t been there for awhile. The Cats are really good. They are well rounded and super connected.

Our old friend Matt Painter has Purdue hitting on all cylinders at just the right time. They should have an easy first game against Texas and will be waiting for whoever wins the heavyweight fight in the other game.

I don’t think Purdue is good enough, and I am not backing off my Arizona pick to win the whole thing. The Arkansas game will be must watch, don’t blink TV. At the end of the weekend I think the best team will still be the best team. Arizona to Indianapolis.

Midwest Region

  • (4)Alabama vs (1)Michigan
  • (6)Tennessee vs (2)Iowa State

The biggest question in this region is the health of Iowa State star Joshua Jefferson. Jefferson is a star, and it is hard to see Iowa State escaping this region without him.

Remember that stretch when Michigan was beating everyone by a gazillion points? Well, that was a long time ago. The Wolverines are really good with, quite possibly, the best young coach in the game. Without LJ Cason they haven’t missed a beat, but they are beatable.

What happens now?

  • Regional headline: Will Iowa State catch a break and break an 80 year streak?
  • The favorite: Michigan
  • Regional Final we all want to see: Michigan vs Iowa State. Unless, of course, you are an SEC fan.
  • Best storyline: Can Joshua Jefferson pull a Willis Reed?

Who wins?

I really don’t think the two SEC schools have a chance. Alabama can really go, but they don’t really dig defense. Tennessee has a coach that said he wished the three point line didn’t exist. They will give Iowa State trouble, especially if Jefferson doesn’t play. But ultimately the Rick Barnes factor will come into play.

I picked Iowa State, and I would love to stick with that pick. Unfortunately, the playing status of Jefferson is still unknown. And if he plays, how effective will he be. I think the Cyclones are a fantastic story and fun team to watch. Michigan is connected in the same way Arizona is connected. This really is a toss up game. I am going to take Michigan based on the injury to Jefferson.

Whether my buddy(#TCCCB) and I are right or wrong, we have the potential to have some great games this weekend. There is definitely a lack of Cinderellas these days, which is unfortunate. Still, there have been some great games so far in this tournament.

As for those magical moments we all long for, yea, there have been plenty of those, too. Maybe the best moment to date was the one that put a stake through the defending champs.

 

The architect of that moment, Alvaro Folgueiras, said after the game that March is for dreamers.

Well said, young man, well said.

Tweet of the Week

Yes. Simply, yes.

 


The Weekly Shiny Penny

There are lots of tears, smiles, and kind words that come with March Madness. There may be no picture, however, that captures the essence of unpredictability during this month.

 

 


A Penny For My Final Thought…

Random March Madness thoughts…

  • Officiating in the tournament has not been stellar. Case in point…

 

  • The TV schedule for games needs tweaked. This past Saturday and Sunday they began the schedule with two stand along games, then started jamming all the other games into the evening window. Thursday night the last tip time is slated for 10:05 PM. Ridiculous and nonsensical.
  • If the tournament basketballs are being overinflated, why? It doesn’t make sense.
  • I thought most of the crowds at the early sites were really good. That isn’t always the case.
  • Why is Nate Burleson on my TV so much? Really makes you miss Greg Gumbel.
  • Charles Barkley makes every studio show better.
  • The announcers teams were all actually really good.
  • Bill Rafftery is ageless and continually fantastic.
  • The best announcer team in totality is Kevin Harlan, Stan Van Gundy, and the guy who will replace Rafftery some day, Robbie Hummel.
  • The ACC still stinks. The numbers don’t lie.
  • Best celebration so far, and it was made more special after Florida coach Todd Golden acted like a fool earlier in the game. The Gator chomp right in his face.

 

  • The smallest NIL budget in the Sweet Sixteen is Iowa at 6.25 million. Hey Penn State fans, that is double your budget. Tis the era of money talks.
Just my two cents….