Just like that, the great early season matchups of November, the tastes of conference play in December, the grind of conference play from January through early March, and the excitement of conference tournaments over the past two weeks is over.

The brackets are out.

Buckle up.

It’s go time.

Crunch the numbers, analyze matchups, get injury updates, or —if you’re a casual— check out the team colors, mascots, and lucky seed numbers. Whether you are an over analyzer or a flip of the coin type, it is time to fill out your brackets. I did well enough last year in my pool contest I always enter to win a little cash, so maybe you should keep reading. Of course, if I won money last year that could mean I’m due to go back to tanking this year.

I did consult with my long time friend —well, to be honest, we are on again, off again— Two Cent Cracked Crystal Ball(#TCCCB).

 

He seemed pretty confident, but he always is confident until the wheels fall off.

So with every grain of salt I can muster, here is my 2026 bracket, fresh with analysis.

EAST REGION

 

The East Region is blue blood central. Duke, Kansas, Louisville, Michigan State, UCLA, and UConn with a side of Rick Pitino give this region historical significance.

I have far less confidence in Duke than I did before Caleb Foster and Patrick Ngongba were injured. Foster won’t be back, in all likelihood, but it sounds like Ngongba will be ready to play soon. He is a rim protector, which is important in March. Having a superstar is important as well. Cameron Boozer is a superstar, and one who is willing to grind, dive on the floor, and do all of the dirty work. I like Duke to still have enough to come out of the East Region.

  • Who was my second choice? St. John’s. Rick Pitino in March sent West for the first week, with a team that seems a bit under seeded. They could really cause Duke problems.
  • Who was my second second choice? UConn. UConn was much more dominant playing outside the Big East. They have a veteran team with a coach and a few players familiar with winning the next six games to hoist the trophy.
  • Pick I am least confident in? UConn over Michigan State. What if UConn has just fizzled out? What if Tom Izzo seeks revenge on my negative commentary?
  • Could there be a sleeper/Cinderella? No Cinderella, but Louisville could be a sleeper. Cards fans have been waiting for this team to play to expectations. A healthy Mikel Brown could allow that to happen.

South Region

 

Redemption, repeat, rejuvenate and Brad Underwood’s scowl. Kelvin Sampson wants redemption and to finish the job, Todd Golden wants a Gator repeat, and Fred Hoiberg and Mark Byington have rejuvenated Nebraska and Vanderbilt respectively. Meanwhile Brad Underwood just wants something to make him smile. That is the South Region in a nutshell.

The weekend loss to Vanderbilt notwithstanding, I still feel like Florida is going to be one tough out. A dominant front court mixed with an improved backcourt gives me confidence to think Florida can at least get back to the Final Four.

  • Could it be a different story? Yes, if the Gators have to play Houston in Houston. That should not happen to a top seed, and I have Illinois preventing that from happening. Still, beating Houston in a de facto home game for a trip to the Final Four would be a daunting task.
  • Why? St. Mary’s gets over seeded more often than not. I didn’t want to pick Texas A&M, but St. Mary’s shouldn’t be their opponent.
  • Pick I am least confident in? Illinois over Houston. Again, the game will be in Houston. I just think Illinois will score enough points to outscore a Houston team that is not as adept as usual on the defensive end.
  • Could there be a sleeper/Cinderella? Yes. VCU could win two games(I have them winning one), which would qualify the Rams as a Cinderella. Nebraska would probably qualify as a sleeper, and the Huskers advancing would most definitely make them the best story of this region.

West Region

 

Koa Peat, Darius Acuff, and AJ Dybantsa in the same region will have NBA scouts flocking to these games. The West Region is all about freshmen sensations.

Arizona took this season by the throat early and never really let go. The Wildcats had a two game blip in early February. Aside from that they have taken everyone’s punch and still stood standing with a smile on their face in the middle of the ring. It won’t be easy for Arizona, but I think this season’s data says they will handle their business.

  • Which speed bump could trip up Zona? Darius Acuff can go off against anyone, and Arkansas is super athletic with a ton of other weapons. My very first —without any thought— bracket had Arkansas reaching the Final Four. I picked them in the preseason and I wouldn’t be shocked to see it happen.
  • Could an old friend fly under the radar the whole way to Indianapolis? Yes. Gonzaga is getting no love. If they can get Braden Huff back —even if it isn’t until the second weekend— the Zags will be a really tough out. Graham Ike is a beast and this is Mark Few’s best defensive team.
  • Pick I am least confident in? Miami over Missouri. This is simply because this is a de facto home game for Missouri. I think Miami is better, which is why I picked the Canes.
  • Could there be a sleeper/Cinderella? I think High Point could win a game vs Wisconsin. As far as a sleeper, how about AJ Dybantsa putting BYU on his back and rolling to the Elite Eight?

Midwest Region


What have you done for me lately?

The Big Ten hasn’t won a national championship since 2000. The one seed in the Midwest Region is primed to end that streak. Standing in the Wolverines way could be two seed Iowa State, who hasn’t been to the Final Four since 1944. These two have very reasonable paths to reach the Elite Eight. As much as I like Dusty May’s group, I think Iowa State has all the parts to break their Final Four streak of 82 years.

  • How hard was it to NOT pick Michigan? It isn’t like I picked some rando. Iowa State is really good. Plus, I refuse to pick all one seeds again this year. The LJ Cason injury will eventually get the Wolverines.
  • Is there any other team in this region that has a chance? In a word, no. Alabama can score but can not stop others from scoring. Plus, one wonders how the latest player arrest will affect the Tide. Tennessee is okay, but Rick Barnes in the tournament is poison. Virginia is a hard no. This region is a two horse race.
  • Pick I am least confident in? Texas Tech over Akron. I planned on picking Akron in the tournament since last week. I penciled them in with my first draft of my bracket. Then I decided that Texas Tech was simply better, even with injuries. I fear that could backfire.
  • Is there a sleeper/Cinderella? I just don’t see one. Santa Clara over Kentucky is the best I can do in this region.

Final Thoughts

Due to NIL and the system in place, there has never been more of a clear separation between the top of this field and everyone else. Duke, Arizona, and Michigan have been dominant since day one. Florida joined the party midway through the season. UConn started strong but wobbled late. Houston and Iowa State fit the KenPom gold star stats for picking winners.

There are certainly teams that could upset the apple cart. I just don’t think it is going to be a double digit seed. There is just too much separation.

I desperately want to pick St. John’s in the East Region. They are the one team that could complain about seeding in an otherwise solid year for the committee. I never like to go against Rick Pitino in March, but I have been on Duke all year. Michigan State is another team capable of easing into the Final Four in the East. My disdain for Tom Izzo ultimately caused me to go with UConn.

I love Illinois on offense, which is why I am taking them over Houston, in a game that will be played in Houston. I am rooting for Nebraska to make more noise than I am predicting. Remember when taking a 12 over a 5 was a must? No more. My biggest upset —and only real upset— is VCU over Carolina. VCU is red hot.

If there is a team outside of the top two seeds in each region that I think could go to the Final Four it would be four seed Arkansas. Darius Acuff can put a team on his back, but probably doesn’t have to. This would have John Calipari holding court after every game if the Hogs can make a long run. Gonzaga has spent the better part of 25 years saying this is the year. This year nobody even mentions the Zags. It would be the greatest troll job ever if they go to the Final Four.

Oh…

Final Four

  • Florida over Duke
  • Arizona over Iowa State

National Championship

  • Arizona over Florida

Arizona has not lifted the national championship trophy since 1997. The current Wildcats team is talented, cohesive, and mentally tough. They have a senior leader in Jayden Bradley and a diaper dandy(shoutout Dick Vitale) in Koa Peat. The supporting cast is as good as any other team’s supporting cast.

The title is heading west.

Tweet of the Week

It is the time for the now annual John Calipari tongue and cheek(somewhat) dissection of his team’s draw. I don’t know when, how, or what happened, but Calipari is one of the most likable coaches in the country.

 


The Weekly Shiny Penny

I hope he doesn’t beat my Louisville Cardinals in round one, but this is the most heartwarming story in round one from Bryan Hodgson, coach of South Florida.

 


A Penny For My Final Thought…

A few last quick thoughts from the start of the Madness…

  • Best team name: Queens Royals
  • Best Mascots: Zippy the Akron Zip, St. Louis Billikens, Joe Vandal(Idaho), True Grit the Chesapeake Bay retriever(UMBC), Lance the Lancer(Cal Baptist), and, of course, the Quaker(Penn).
  • Best announce teams: 1. Kevin Harlan, Robbie Hummel, and Stan Van Gundy 2. Ian Eagle, Bill Raftery, and Grant Hill 3. Spero Dedes, Jim Spanarkel, and Jon Rothstein
  • Most overused phrases you will hear: “score the ball”, “heat check”, “you gotta foul up three”, “paint presence”, “survive and advance”, “tough way to end your season”.
  • Best excuses to miss work Thursday: 1. I’ve gone mad. 2. Buzzer beater fever. 3. Cinderella Flu. 4. I got bracket busted. 5. Upset stomach alert.

Pick well and enjoy the games.

Just my two cents…