For years, college basketball would arrive at March parsing all the numbers, particularly schedule strength. College basketball has the benefit of a 30 game schedule and a 68 team field for their postseason tournament. That aside, time and time again the basketball selection committee has used schedule strength to take a 13 loss team over, let’s say, a 9 loss team. Sometimes it is a tough call for them to pick the correct team. Of course, it gives fans a chance to voice their displeasure at the teams that get “snubbed”. I am a famously competent complainer myself.

So, what about college football?

Now that college football has adopted a 12 team playoff, the selection committee will have some potentially difficult decisions. And with only 12 game schedules it becomes a bit more daunting to parse through limited data to determine who should get those last couple bids and who should not.

Of the many things I am intrigued by entering a new playoff format, seeing how much emphasis is placed on schedule strength is at the top of my list.

There are 5 automatic bids(ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, SEC, Group of 5), leaving 7 at large bids for the next best 7 teams. Who gets those spots and who deserves the spots may not align. A big reason may end up being schedule strength. I would much rather see that criteria used as opposed to name recognition. Although, this year schedule strength may not favor the lesser knowns. 

With expanded conferences, teams will have varying schedule strengths from year to year. For example, in the SEC Georgia had the pleasure of playing at Alabama, at Mississippi, at Texas, and Tennessee at home. Meanwhile, Texas’s next toughest game after hosting Georgia is a trip to College Station to play Texas A&M. In the Big Ten, Indiana plays one meaningful game. With Michigan down, Ohio State is the only truly good team the Hoosiers face. Similarly, with USC tanking, Penn State only has the Ohio State game to hang their hat on. Illinois is okay, but they don’t move the needle. On the flip side of that schedule coin, Ohio State had to travel to Oregon and Penn State and still hosts Indiana.

Conference schedules are dependent on league’s scheduling mechanisms and the cyclical strength every team goes through. This year Michigan is way down while Indiana is way up. The one way to improve your schedule is the out of conference schedule. Most coaches, like James Franklin and Lincoln Riley, are on record as saying they don’t want tough out of conference games. That is a shame for the fans. Those are the early season games we all look forward to. As I said at the beginning of the season, the NCAA and the selection committee need to incentivize playing quality opponents.

So where do we stand this season in terms of schedule strength?

Let’s play the what if game.

  • What if Indiana finishes with on loss and Tennessee has two losses(one to Arkansas)? Tennessee would have a win over Alabama. Indiana’s best win would be Michigan. What if Indiana gets blown out by Ohio State? What if it is close? In this scenario you could replace Tennessee with Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and possibly Texas A&M.
  • What if both Indiana and Notre Dame finish with one loss? Notre Dame’s best win would be against Texas A&M. They would have the worst loss of the season at home versus Northern Illinois, who is now 5-4. If USC or Army upsets Notre Dame one would assume the Irish are out.
  • What if Penn State loses to Minnesota? Not likely but possible, and it would leave Penn State with two losses and a best win over Illinois. Would a two loss Penn State be taken over a two loss SEC team?
  • What if Georgia or Alabama loses a third game? Georgia, in particular, has dealt with a brutal schedule. Not only at Texas, Mississippi, and Alabama and home for Tennessee, but the Dawgs took on a neutral site game with Clemson to start the season. Would that be enough to propel Georgia into the playoffs ahead of a one loss Indiana, two loss Penn State, two loss Miami, one loss BYU?
  • What if BYU loses in the Big 12 championship game? Would a one loss BYU have any chance at all? The Cougs just don’t have any good wins. I would think they must run the table.
  • If Miami reaches the ACC championship game and loses, would a two loss Hurricane team have any chance? Much like BYU and Indiana, the Canes just don’t have a lot of meat on their bone.

Where schedule strength should really be taken into account is with seeding. Since a home game is on the line, I would hope that a tough schedule would be rewarded with a higher seed. If the committee doesn’t give any weight to playing tough opponents then nobody will schedule tough OOC games.

I want nothing more than to see the Indianas and BYUs get into the playoffs. Cinderella is what adds so much interest, excitement, and intrigue to the college basketball tournament. Why not the football playoffs? But facts are facts. Any of the SEC two loss teams —and maybe Georgia with three losses— warrant inclusion ahead of a one loss Indiana or a one loss BYU.

The wildcard in all of this is Notre Dame. My eyes tell me they are playing really well right now. However, they aren’t exactly stomping Murderer’s Row. And that Northern Illinois loss isn’t going away no matter how much the pundits suggest it should. I would also argue that this would be the perfect time to send the Irish a message about joining a conference. That won’t happen because it would require a backbone. The NCAA had that removed long ago.

Based on predictive outcomes of the remaining games and, of course my two cents, here is how it could play out. And my faithful readers know how excellent my predictive analysis has played out this season.

  • (9) Notre Dame at (8) Georgia.  Winner plays (1) Oregon
  • (10) Tennessee at (7) Penn State. Winner plays (2) Texas
  • (11) Mississippi at (6) Alabama. Winner plays (3) BYU
  • (12) Boise State at (5) Ohio State. Winner plays (4) Miami

I think much like basketball, the committee will try to avoid rematches when possible. For example, if Ohio State plays Oregon for the second time in the Big Ten championship game the committee may try to avoid the third matchup unless they both reach the championship game. Another example, I switched Georgia and Penn State to avoid another Georgia-Tennessee game.

As you can see, I don’t have Indiana in the playoffs. For as good a story as Indiana is, that schedule is just awful. Much like BYU, the Hoosiers better win out. You may hate the SEC, but those teams have been beating up on each other all year. They are all good teams which makes their schedules tougher. With USC, Washington, Michigan, and Wisconsin having down years, it has significantly weakened the Big Ten.

However this all goes down, I sure hope who you play matters.

Two Cent Takes

College Football

~Deion Sanders is doing a great job in year two at Colorado. That hasn’t stopped his two sons from acting like jackasses on a regular basis. Here the Texas Tech ball boy is simply trying to do his job. You can even hear him say, “C’mon man”.

 

 

Welcome to Thug U.

~Sherrone Moore may have an extremely short tenure in Ann Arbor. To all the coaches who have botched clock management —yes, I’m looking at you Lincoln Riley— this easily takes the cake.

 


~One of the worst fallouts to this new era of college football is the TV contracts. The Big Ten made deals with FOX, NBC(which means Peacock too), and CBS, plus the Big Ten Network. They all get weeks to bid on games, meaning FOX gets many weeks with their silly Big Noon Kickoff game being a really bad game like last week’s Ohio State/Purdue game. Even Gus Johnson couldn’t get fired up for that one. In turn, Penn State’s whiteout game last Saturday got stuck on Peacock. Penn State people were upset. Remember, you happily took the money from the numerous TV contracts, so you get what you get. Money wins, the fans lose.

College Hoops

~It is early but Tennessee looks really good. On the other hand, Louisville’s rebuilt roster with new energetic coach Pat Kelsey are not ready for prime time. Getting an entirely new roster with a new coach to gel will take time. As for Tennessee, that kind of stifling defense travels. Keep an eye on the Vols.

~Penn State scored 100 points in their first two games for the first time in school history. Binghamton and UMBC aren’t a real stiff test, but the Lions roster looks a bit better than I gave it credit for. Still, let’s see how that roster looks against some legitimate teams.

~Baylor got blown out by Gonzaga, then came back to beat John Calipari and Arkansas. Win or lose, those are the kind of games that get you ready for the riggers of the Big 12.

~Richard Pitino and New Mexico got a big win against UCLA. I still believe Mick Cronin will have a good team at UCLA.

NBA

~Sixers fans will want to mark the record when Joel Embiid finally suits up. Currently they are 2-7.

~The Cavaliers are 11-0 and seem like the real deal.

~Bronny James got demoted to the minors, and that is the best thing for him.

NHL

~It is finally time for the Pens to have a difficult conversation with Mike Sullivan. If it’s a rebuild, bring in someone new to be the voice of the rebuild. A 7-1 home loss last night should be the final nail in Sullivan’s coffin.

~At 14-1, the Winnipeg Jets have se the NHL record for best start to a season.

NFL

~Michael Strahan, whose father was in the military, didn’t put his hand over his heart during the national anthem during their Veteran’s Day show, so now he is being labeled un-American. For the love of God, can we please stop this false patriotism nonsense. Everything doesn’t have to be a thing.

 

 

~The Bears are ruining Caleb Williams, and he isn’t exactly helping himself. Matt Eberflus will be fired…soon. He should be. The offensive line is porous at best. However, Williams has been inaccurate far too often, he holds the ball far too long, and he seems to have alienated some teammates. Need proof? He gets helped up by an opponent rather than a teammate after one of nine sacks.

 

 

~In one fell swoop, Dallas has become the worst team in the NFL. Mike McCarthy won’t be back.

~If you want to squash the conspiracy theory that Kansas City gets favored by officials, you may want to burn this video with a hot mic picking up Patrick Mahomes asking the official to “let him know when they are close”.

 

 

~The officiating in the Steelers/Commanders game was simply atrocious. Non calls were made. Obvious calls were ignored. Here is just one example. TJ Watt held….again.

 

 

The Weekly Shiny Penny

I became a USC fan at 8 years of age in 1974. John McKay was the legendary head coach of the Trojans.

I became a USC fanatic in 1976. John Robinson was the head coach. All he did at USC in two separate tenures was go 104-35-4. He coached two Heisman Trophy winners, went 7-1 in bowl games, won one National Championship and should have won another. He won 4 Rose Bowls plus a Cotton Bowl. He did it all while being a calm father figure to his players. There aren’t many coaches like Robinson anymore.

John Robinson died yesterday at age 89.

 

 

A Penny For My Final Thought…

Remember when I wrote multiple times in the past that it may be best for the Steelers to part ways with Mike Tomlin?

Eh, what do I know?

Mike Tomlin is having a revival of sorts this year in Pittsburgh.

It turns out having a professional quarterback makes a coach look better. Russell Wilson has the Steelers offense looking its best in the last five years. Tomlin has always prided himself on having a high end defense. This season is no different in that regard.

Let me give Tomlin props in several regards.

For all the bad assistant coaching hires he has made, Tomlin having special teams coach Danny Smith on the staff is a stroke of genius. The Steelers have one of the best special teams units in football. They have blocked kicks, returned a kick for a touchdown, have the best kicker in the NFL, and until yesterday have one of the best kick coverage units. Yesterday, they nearly pulled off a gem of a fake punt from their own 15 yard line.

 

 

Like a good coach will do, Tomlin took responsibility for the risky fake call. It would have worked if not for James Pierre’s stone hands.

Tomlin gets major credit for making the change at quarterback after Justin Fields opened the season 4-2 as the Steelers starter. Aside from your three favorite podcasters —check out me, Eric, Scott on Wall2WallFootball— nobody thought he should make the change, including his own staff.

He did, and boy has it jump started the offense. Russell Wilson is in full control. His cadence is sharp and confident. His audibles are smart. His deep ball allows his receivers to adjust to the ball and make plays for the team. Do you think star wideout George Pickens is happy to have Wilson throwing him the football? Check out this acrobatic touchdown from Sunday.

 

 

And how perfect was this game winning beauty to newly acquired Steeler Mike Williams?

 

 

Tomlin did that. He had the guts to go with his gut. Plus, don’t think he didn’t know what he had in Wilson. Wilson may not be a top five quarterback anymore, but he also didn’t forget how to play. Most importantly, Wilson knows how to navigate a team to the Super Bowl.

Finally, Tomlin is far more aggressive this year, especially with Wilson at the helm. He is back to not living in his fears. The fake punt is a perfect example. He took the blame, but defiantly said he would do it again. He has gone from coaching safe and trying not to lose, to coaching aggressively and trying to win. That is a welcomed change.

Need another example of being aggressive? No way you convince me they would have actually gone for it here, but still taking this chance was un-Tomlinlike. They took a chance the other guys would do something really stupid. Guess what? The other guys did something really stupid.

 

 

Check out the excitement of every player, especially Russell Wilson.

Finally, a shout out to GM Omar Khan. Khan has put together two excellent drafts. He has gone heavy on the offensive line, and that unit —despite a ton of injuries— is starting to come together. Mason McCormick was a fourth round pick out of South Dakota State. He has stepped into the starting lineup and made everyone forget about James Daniels.

Khan was also aggressive at the trade deadline bringing in Mike Williams, but also edge rusher Preston Smith. Smith will be even more valuable with Alex Highsmith out for what could be a lengthy time.

And one last shout out to Tomlin. He sticks by guys, and often it pays off. I have been ready to get rid of left tackle Dan Moore for years. Tomlin stuck with Moore, and he is having his best season.

I am glad Tomlin is still the head coach, and not just for his quotes. There was an awful big lull since the last big playoff run, and nothing has been accomplished just yet, but signs are promising.

Dare I say —and I already did on the Wall2Wall podcast last week— the Steelers are Super Bowl contenders. Oh, and I call no jinx for typing that. Look, you can’t be too safe.

The Ravens are next, and that will set a tone for the remainder of the season. The schedule has some real difficulties from here on out. I think the Steelers are up to the task.

 


Let’s hope we get to see Mike Tomlin blow a lot more kisses this season. Maybe even into February.

Just my two cents…