Five months from today the basketball will be tossed to tip off the Final Four in Indianapolis. That means we have five long months to figure out who is not just tournament worthy but who is Final Four worthy.

Every year is always brand new. Obviously. In college basketball that means more than just the date on the calendar. Most teams have massive change, watching their own players graduate and/or transfer while claiming other teams castoffs in the portal. That is why doing previews is next to impossible.

Well, you’ve come to the right place. I will give you my two cents on the upcoming season in cliff note form.

ACC

This conference hit rock bottom last year. The biggest thing for the ACC is to not double down on last season. 

Most likely to win the conference: Duke

The Blue Devils lost all everything Cooper Flagg and pick up all everything Cameron Boozer. Boozer’s supporting cast may be better than Flagg’s was last year. Jon Scheyer has figured out the puzzle of taking over for a legend. It will be a very young team, but a very talented team. As usual, Duke will test itself against the best. With Texas, Kansas, Arkansas, Texas Tech, Florida, Michigan, and Michigan State on the docket. Duke will be tournament ready come March.

Top Tier Contenders: Louisville, NC State, Virginia

Louisville has quickly improved its roster under Pat Kelsey. Coming off the disaster that was Kenny Payne, the Cards have loaded up with guards, guards, guards. Mikel Brown will be a lottery pick and leads the Louisville attack. He will be joined by veteran sharpshooters Isaac McNeely, Ryan Conwell, and Adrian Wooley. The Cards will struggle some on the boards until Karson Pryor gets fully healthy. Javon Hadley, the human utility knife will provide a veteran presence and act as a glue guy.

Darrion Williams leads a band of athletic transfers for new head coach Will Wade at North Carolina. Say what you will about Wade —brash, slick, and a little slimy— but he wins. He will immediately get this team of transfers to gel and pile up victories. All of it is good for the struggling conference. The Pack doesn’t have a super grueling schedule, so they will have time to iron out the kinks.

Ryan Odom takes over at Virginia and is bound to have a more exciting brand of basketball than Tony Bennett’s teams. Odom went West to find Malik Thomas(San Francisco), Devin Tillis(Cal-Irvine), and Jacari White(North Dakota St). Thomas could become a star. The guy that could end up being a POY candidate in the ACC is Thijs De Ridder out of Belgium. He is 22 and is used to playing high level basketball.

Quick Notes

The hot seat is already warmed up for Hubert Davis, Adrian Autry, and Jeff Capel among others. Davis won’t win enough this year at North Carolina. Pitt will stink  but Capel’s contract and buyout may save him. Autry has a chance to have the sleeper team in the ACC. If he doesn’t blow it, Autry will not only survive but coach a tournament game or two. Can Micah Shrewsberry get Notre Dame to the level he had Penn State when he left? I think he has a better than average chance to make the tournament.

Big East

Add Richard Pitino and Kevin Willard to a list of excellent coaches in this conference. Still, this will be a very top heavy league this year.

Most likely to win conference: UConn

Danny Hurley is like a psychotic basketball coaching machine. He brings in tons of talent  then drives them to success. UConn could be a team that gets back to the ultimate winner’s circle this season. Hurley has a great mix of veterans, led by Alex Karaban and Solo Ball, and fresh faces, led by Braylon Mullins. I would not bet against Hurley getting back on top.

Top Tier Contenders: St. John’s

Rick Pitino saved a floundering St. John’s program. Now he wants to take Them to the next level, a Final Four. This is another guy I would never bet against. He added some much needed shooting from the portal. Zuby Ejiofor may be the best player in the league. A Rick Pitino team will always play stifling defense. The UConn-St. John’s battle should be epic this year.

Quick Notes 

I don’t know who the next best team will be. Creighton will score, but they will allow opponents to score, too. I love Shaka Smart, but he refuses to hit the portal and without Kam Jones I question where the offense will come from. Can Kevin Willard turn Villanova around in year one? Is this the year Ed Cooley gets Georgetown to the tournament? I am interested in seeing if Cooley can get production out of Vince Iwuchukwu. There are more questions here than answers.

Big 12

In a word, loaded. As in drunk on talented teams. You can throw a net around the top 4 teams in the Big 12. Luckily the bottom 4 or 5 teams will provide some relatively easy wins.

Most likely to win conference: BYU

The Cougars bring back some very solid pieces, mainly star in the making Richie Saunders. Two excellent transfers in Kennard Davis(SIU) and Robert Wright(Baylor) should make an immediate impact, while a good freshman class led by AJ Dybantsa should do the same. Deep, talented, and a great mix of veterans and youth make BYU my choice in a tough call.

Top Tier Contenders: Houston, Kansas, Texas Tech

Once again, I worry about Houston scoring enough points. As usual, the Cougars defense will be suffocating. Kelvin Sampson never has a team that doesn’t play hard. If they score, the Cougars will be a really tough out again this year. Kansas has been “down” for a couple years now, so Bill Self is ready to have a contender again. Darryn Peterson will be a fabulous freshman. Meanwhile, Tre White and Melvin Council transferred in and will provide some win help. This is White’s fourth school. Look for Kansas to be there in the end. Texas Tech has JT Toppin back along with a bunch of transfers and freshmen. How quickly they can get on board and help Toppin out will go a long way in determining how good this team can be.

Quick Notes

Arizona will have one of the youngest teams in the country and could be really good by March. Look out for stud freshman Koa Peat, who already put the country on alert with his performance against Florida last night. I never doubt a TJ Otzelberger coached team, so Iowa State will remain in the mix. Baylor is all new so who knows about the Bears. Wes Miller and Bobby Hurley better win or else. West Virginia will be hoping to keep head coach Ross Hodge for more than a year.

SEC

Florida won it all a year ago, and the Gators and a few others would like to make it two in a row for the SEC.

Most likely to win conference: Florida

The Gators lost Final Four MVP Walter Clayton but went out and pulled in guards Boogie Flanders and Xaivian Lee from the portal. The frontcourt returns, and it’s hard to believe they could be better than a year ago. Yet, the Gators as a whole might be a better, deeper team this season. Plus, Todd Golden has a secret weapon in 7’9” Olivier Rioux. It is always a challenge to repeat, and I’m not sure the Gators will do that. However, winning the SEC is more than possible.

Top Tier Contenders: Arkansas, Kentucky

Oh, that crazy Calipari going from all new rosters every year in Kentucky to a slew of returners this year at Arkansas. Actually he will have quite a few potential impact freshman, but look for big years out of senior Trevon Brazille and sophomore Katerina Knox. This could be junior DJ Wagner’s breakout season as well. Say what you will, but Calipari will get maximum effort from his team and be a real challenger.

Kentucky was really good in Mark Pope’s first year with kind of a makeshift roster. This year, Pope will have potentially the best backcourt in the country with Ortega Oweh and Jaland Lowe. The frontcourt should be solid. Guard play wins a lot of games, so expect Kentucky to rack up plenty of wins and be in the hunt.

Quick Notes

Tennessee has a great 1-2 punch in stud Nate Ament and Maryland transfer Ja’Kobi Gillespie. Will they have enough other pieces? Alabama needs some guys to step up from their previous contributions for Nate Oats to have a championship caliber team. Either way the Tide will be good. Auburn loses one Pearl and find another. Will Steve be as unlikable as his daddy? Fourteen teams made the tournament a year ago, but won’t reach that level this year.

Big Ten

We have now gone 25 years since the Big Ten won a national title. I wouldn’t put money on this year being the time that streak ends.

Most likely to win conference: Purdue

Matt Painter is as good as it gets on the sideline. He returns Braedon Smith and star Trey Kauffman-Renn, which should be a great source of scoring. Painter went and got big man Oscar Cluff to fix Purdue’s problem in the paint. Once again, my biggest concern with the Boilermakers is athleticism. Purdue is the clear favorite in the Big Ten.

Top Tier Contenders: Michigan, UCLA

Michigan crushed the portal this offseason, adding Elliott Cadeau, Morez Johnson, Yaxel Lendeborg, and Adam Mara. Dusty May will maybe go big with his lineup, which will giveth and taketh away. Still, May has a way of getting his team’s into contention. This year should be the same.

Most have UCLA lower, but I believe in Mick Cronin and, more importantly, newly acquired guard Donovan Dent. Dent will take some games over and be far more athletic than most teams will want to deal with. Dent and senior Skyy Clark should make for a dynamic duo. Finally, the Bruins may score enough to match their defense.

Quick Notes

Watch the West Coast. In addition to UCLA, Washington, USC, and Oregon should all be improved. Washington raided USC for two really good players and should be good. Dana Altman continues to be one of the most underrated coaches in America. At USC, Eric Musselman is starting to acquire better talent. He famously gets the most out of his teams. There are a lot of good, but not great teams in this league. Double digit bids to the tournament seems almost automatic. How quickly will Buzz Williams get Maryland playing his hard nosed style of play? Will Mike Rhodes survive a potential disastrous season at Penn State?

Others

Gonzaga and San Diego State lead the way for the non Power Six teams. Someone else will step forward from this group, but that is like finding a needle in a haystack.

Final Four Predictions

  • St. John’s
  • Louisville
  • Arkansas
  • UConn

I like UConn to beat Arkansas in the championship game.

Five months of great games, something other sports can’t provide. Just think, we have some great early matchups, then the tournaments that are played in and around Thanksgiving, and two months of conference play before we ever get to March Madness.

Pace yourself, it will be a long and winding road to Indianapolis.

Tweet of the Week

Some Halloween fun at the Bruins expense.

 

 

The Weekly Shiny Penny

This guy would be my first pick if I were choosing a college football head coach. Kenny Dillingham always has great perspective and always says the correct thing.

 

 

A Penny For My Final Thought…

Baseball in November.

Stupid.

Like a lot of things in baseball.

I will admit that the World Series, and all of the playoffs quite frankly, was sensational. Clutch pitching, big home runs, nail biting extra innings, crazy plays, unreal catches. It had it all.

It also had bad base running.

Game six ended with Addison Barger being doubled off second base on a line drive to left. Barger was the tying run and wanted to have a chance to score if the ball fell in. There was no way he could have scored. He had to make sure the ball dropped. He didn’t, and the game ended on a flashy double play to force game seven.

Then in extra innings of an unbelievable game seven, former Pirate Isaiah Kiner-Falefa was on third with the Jays having the bases loaded. IKF was thrown out by a hair on a ground ball to second base.

 

IKF took a short lead and basically got no secondary lead, citing not wanting to get doubled off. Nah. I call BS. It was just more bad base running from another Major League Baseball player. It happens far too often. Oh, and he should have run through home rather than slide. I love the MLB players that are defending IKF, often citing us commoners don’t  “get it”. News flash…I was taught those concepts in Little League and Babe Ruth(teener) League. The problem is there was probably some analytic that told him to not get a solid secondary lead.

Stupid.

It could have been bedlam in Toronto, but instead it ended with a Dodgers repeat.

Yippee.

Two of the biggest spenders in baseball competing for a world championship, and the biggest spenders of all winning it all. Again.

I don’t blame the Dodgers. They are playing by the rules.

The rules stink.

One more season to go before they negotiate a new bargaining agreement. A salary cap, floor, and better revenue sharing needs to instituted in 2027. Hold out, don’t give in, throw away the 2027 season if necessary.

Get it done.

Unfortunately I lack faith in the owners having the stomach to miss a season and do what is right. A salary cap and floor is clearly the right thing.

Remember, baseball is stupid.

I will believe it when I see it.

Just my two cents…