By Tim Clark / / College Sports, Column, Tim's Two Cents
Two

So many players changing teams every year stinks.

Another gambling scandal was another black eye for college basketball.

Allowing players who were drafted in the NBA Draft to come back and play college basketball because a judge may rule against you seems weak. It is hard to believe they found a corrupt judge in Alabama.

A lot of negatives hovering over the sport.

But then I saw the calendar. I got my abacus out and did the math. One groundhog plus some heart shaped candy boxes, carry the one, and I realized what the answer meant. You know it, too. March is less than a month away. And say it with me, with March brings ________.

I know you know, but I’m going to say it anyway.

Madness.

That means I shove all of those negative things to the back of my mind where I house all those unanswerable questions like: Why aren’t whoopie pies considered a healthy snack? Why does my cat pick football games better than me? Why does ESPN schedule basketball games 2 hours apart? Some day I will get these things all solved. Well, maybe not the whoopie pies thing.

So with a month until the Madness, where do things stand in college basketball?

Last year picking the Final Four was much easier than usual. There were 4-6 teams that stood out above the rest. This year won’t be that easy. Although teams like Arizona, Duke, and UConn certainly seem to be leading the way, there are at least 10-15 other teams that are right on their heels.

I will break each conference into tiers, with tier one being Final Four capable, tier two being tournament worthy, tier three being close but not quite, and tier four being the also rans. With a month left, these tiers are still very fluid.

ACC

The ACC is better than the past couple of seasons, but the conference is still clearly fourth of the five Power 5 conferences.

  • Tier 1: Duke
  • Tier 2: North Carolina, Clemson, Louisville, Virginia, SMU, NC State
  • Tier 3: Miami, Virginia Tech, Cal
  • Tier 4: Syracuse, Stanford, Florida State, Pitt, Notre Dame, Boston College, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech

Duke is elite, with a coach that is going to be elite. It is hard to do what Jon Scheyer is doing, and it helps that recruiting has not missed a beat since Coach K retired. Cameron Boozer is the best player in the country, and has a better supporting cast than most of the other elite players in the country.

Seven teams should see their name appear in the brackets on March 15. North Carolina has a chance, mainly because of Caleb Wilson, to elevate to Final Four status. Louisville has an outside chance —very outside— of reaching that level. I think there is still a chance an eighth team gets in. My bet would be Cal. The Bears win at home and have five more home tilts. Plus their road games are against beatable opponents.

Steve Forbes will be looking for work after the season ends. He has not been able to get Wake Forest rolling. Jeff Capel should get fired, but his contract may make that unpalatable for Pitt. Stanford has a good team with a great freshman in  Ebuka Okorie, but the Cardinal picked a bad time to go on a four game losing streak.

Big East

Yuck. This is a really, REALLY down year for this conference.

  • Tier 1: UConn
  • Tier 2: St. John’s, Villanova
  • Tier 3: Seton Hall
  • Tier 4: Creighton, Xavier, Georgetown, DePaul, Butler, Marquette, Providence

UConn is so very solid. A coach that leaves no stone unturned, seven of the top nine players in the rotation are juniors and seniors, and they know how to win. UConn will be hard to pick against come March.

I picked St. John’s to be a Final Four team, but even Rick Pitino may not have enough tricks up his sleeve to get this team that far. Kevin Willard is working miracles in Philly with the Villanova Wildcats. I certainly thought the tournament was a pipe dream in Willard year one. In the end, I think Seton Hall will squeeze into the tournament. Shaheen Holloway is doing a great job with limited resources.

The rest of this league ranges from terrible to disappointing. Marquette and Providence could be searching for a new coach.

SEC

KenPom has the SEC as the number one conference. I rarely disagree with Ken, but I do here. There are a lot of quality teams, but not as many high end, Final Four caliber teams as some other conferences. This year we won’t be wondering if 12, 13, or 14 teams are going to go dancing. Ten, however, may not be out of the question.

  • Tier 1: Florida
  • Tier 2: Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Kentucky, Auburn, Alabama, Texas A&M, Texas
  • Tier 3: Georgia, Missouri
  • Tier 4: LSU, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Oklahoma, South Carolina

Florida had to retool their roster, leaning more on the front court than the backcourt. They appear to have ironed out the kinks, and the Gators are rolling. A return trip to the Final Four is definitely within their grasp. The question will be whether Florida can elevate as far as a two seed.

With the right draw in the bracket three or four other SEC teams have the ability to reach the Final Four. Arkansas is still my choice to make a deep run out of the tier two teams. Coach Cal has a bunch of athletes and freshman Darius Acuff is a stud. Vandy is a great story and will be a fan favorite. Tennessee has enough horses, but Rick Barnes and the tournament don’t always mesh.

Georgia has the best chance at a tenth bid, but the Bulldogs don’t have a lot of meat on the old resume bone. Missouri will need a huge run down the stretch to improve their metrics.

Big 12

This conference isn’t as deep as the SEC, but they have some real Rolls Royce teams at the top of the Big 12. This may end up being a two tier league.

  • Tier 1: Arizona, Houston
  • Tier 2: Iowa State, BYU, Texas Tech, Kansas, UCF
  • Tier 3: West Virginia, Oklahoma State
  • Tier 4: TCU, Cincinnati, Baylor, Arizona State, Colorado, Kansas State, Utah

Honestly, every team in tier 2 —minus UCF, who is a fantastic story— could be moved to tier 1. I do think Arizona and Houston are a touch above the others. Arizona just keeps winning. Not a lot of fanfare accompanies the Wildcats, but it should. Koa Peat is fantastic. The one negative for Arizona is they lack great depth. Houston still has that beat you down mentality, but freshman Kingston Flemings gives the Cougs more offense than they are accustomed to.

BYU has one of those players in AJ Dybantsa that could put the team on his back in March. Kansas has one too, in Daryl Petersen, but he is constantly sidelined by injury. Texas Tech is loaded with athletes, but none better than double double machine JT Toppin. Iowa State is so well coached, and the Cyclones are a veteran team. Johnny Dawkins should be in the running for coach of the year for having UCF playing this well.

The rest of the league is not very good. West Virginia and Oklahoma State won’t have tournament worthy resumes, so seven teams is the number come March.

Big Ten

The Big Ten is deep and has a lot of good teams. I would argue this is the best conference in the country, but we all know about their championship drought.

  • Tier 1: Michigan, Illinois
  • Tier 2: Michigan State, Nebraska, Purdue, Wisconsin, UCLA, Iowa, Indiana, Ohio State
  • Tier 3: USC
  • Tier 4: Northwestern, Washington, Rutgers, Oregon, Minnesota, Maryland, Penn State

Michigan is such a complete team, and finds ways to win close games. The Wolverines are deep, with five players averaging double digits. Dusty May may not be well liked within the league, but he sure does know how to coach. I have always been a big Brad Underwood fan, and he has the Illini firing on all cylinders. Everything I just said about Michigan goes for Illinois as well.

Michigan State is tough as nails, like almost all of Izzo’s teams. Nebraska runs the most fluid offense in the country. They’ve now lost two in a row, but still are the best story in the country. Don’t sleep on Hoiberg and the Huskers. I love that team. Matt Painter will get Purdue rolling again, and I would never doubt him come March. Throw a net around the rest of the tier two teams. A lot of hot and cold with these teams.

Ultimately, I think USC will sneak into the tournament. Eric Musselman is massaging his roster game by game to maximize the output. Losing Rodney Rice for the year was devastating to the Trojans.

The other teams in the league are struggling, some mightily. Penn State did finally get off the snide with a home victory over Minnesota.

Others

As always, there are other teams from smaller conferences that will make March interesting.

  • Tier 1: Gonzaga
  • Tier 2: Utah State, St. Mary’s, St. Louis
  • Tier 3: Belmont, Tulsa, New Mexico, San Diego State, Santa Clara, Miami(OH), Yale, George Mason, McNeese State, Nevada, Grand Canyon
  • Tier 4: all others

This is one of my favorite things about March Madness. All of these teams will get one last shot to make sure they get a bid by winning their conference tournament.

I love this Gonzaga team, and you just have to think Mark Few is going to win a championship at some point. The Zags are on a 15 game heater. My only reservation is the fact Gonzaga hasn’t played a ton of good people.

Miami is going to soon make it hard not to offer them a bid if they don’t win the MAC tournament. Once again, the Mountain West should be a multiple bid league. How good is Tulsa? Maybe not good enough to get an at large bid.

One Month Out

With one month until March we have a lot to parse over. Lots of bubble teams that will push themselves in or out over the next month. On the other end of things I currently rate 8 teams as Final Four worthy. Gonzaga, Arizona, Houston, Michigan, Illinois, Florida, UConn, and Duke are all more than capable of riding the wave to Indianapolis this April. Still, I count ten more teams capable of rising to that level.

That kind of parity  one of the benefits to the portal and NIL. So many teams will roll into March with real, honest to goodness thoughts of making a Final Four and winning a championship. What excitement that will make.

So put the negatives in that lock box, sit back and enjoy the ride. One month to Madness. A great way to cure the winter blues.

Tweet of the Week

Kelvin Sampson in just over two minutes sums up how most feel about college basketball. Well said.


The Weekly Shiny Penny

On March 31, forty years ago, I hunkered down in room 307 Lackhove Hall at Shippensburg University to watch these guys win a national title on my tiny little TV(I still have it) with rabbit ears pointing out the window. The Doctors of Dunk grabbed my interest as a teenager in the late 70’s, won a title in 1980, and ended one of the great runs in college basketball history with the 72-69 win over Duke. Thanks for the memories.

 

 

A Penny For My Final Thoughts…

  • People complaining about CBS showing too much of Brooks Koepka when he was way down the leaderboard don’t get it. Justin Rose was lapping the field. The guys battling for second place not only don’t move the needle, but were mostly unknown by most. Showing Koepka certainly didn’t take away any suspense at the top of the leaderboard.
  • At 45, Justin Rose doesn’t appear to be fading one bit. If anything his game is far better now than 10 years ago.
  • It has been a better than normal offseason for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Still, they have managed to look bad on a couple fronts. First, using fake negative perceptions against a team legend in Andrew McCutchen. He should be brought back on merit. Also, and somewhat related, the Pirates need to stop leaking that they made a “competitive offer” to this guy or that. The latest was Eugenio Suarez, who signed with division rival Cincinnati. With Marcel Ozuna as the next best bat left on the free agent market, stop being stupid and bring back Cutch. He would be a much better fit than Ozuna.
  • Paul George was suspended for violating the NBA drug policy by taking a mental health medication that is prohibited. It is a great lesson that money doesn’t always make life easy. Hope George gets straightened out and comes back to help the 76ers playoff push.
  • Tom Izzo and Dusty May don’t appear to be big fans of one another. That is the way rivals are supposed to be.
  • End the NFL Pro Bowl charade.
  • Bill Belichick didn’t get in the Hall of Fame on the first ballot. So what. He tried to cheat multiple times. I’m sure his 24 year old girlfriend will ease his pain.
  • Mike McCarthy’s plan for his coaching staff appears to be “get the band back together.”
  • Oh, the Super Bowl is Sunday. You know, if anyone cares. The Patriots may have had the luckiest path to a Super Bowl ever. Seattle has been really good, including castoff QB Sam Darnold. I like Seattle to cover and the over.
Just my two cents…