By Tim Clark / / Column, Tim's Two Cents, Football
Two

The five month journey to Santa Clara begins Thursday night in the City of Brotherly Love with the Philadelphia Eagles attempting to duplicate the Chiefs feat of winning back to back Super Bowls. It would also be the Eagles third Super Bowl victory in nine years.

It won’t be easy to do, as the NFL is designed for parity. In the NFC, the Rams and Niners are lurking out west. Detroit will attempt to stay healthy and duplicate last season. The Packers —based on the Micah Parsons trade— are going all in. Jayden Daniels has Commander fans dreaming of dethroning the Eagles in the East.

In the AFC there is upwards of eight teams dreaming of playing in Santa Clara on February 8. Chiefs, Chargers, and Broncos, oh my. Steelers, Bengals, and Ravens, oh my again. The Bills are going to try and kick down that door again, while the Texans look to bounce back to their 2023 version. The biggest question in the AFC is whether someone —anyone— can allow us to NOT see the Chiefs in another Super Bowl. It is a bit redundant at this point. And I’m sure Taylor Swift would rather be planning her wedding.

I know what you’re thinking right about now. You are thinking how great it would be to see one more season preview before kickoff Thursday night. Well, I am nothing if not accommodating. Here is my two cents on the upcoming NFL season.

NFC

West Division

Out west I like the Rams to win the division. The one caveat is Matthew Stafford staying healthy. Seeing too much of Jimmy Garoppolo could be damaging to the Rams chances.

San Francisco will be the biggest challenger. I am not picking the 49ers because I don’t believe in Brock Purdy. I never have. Purdy looks like an average quarterback in a good system. If Christian McCaffrey can get rolling again it will make the offense formidable.

 I think the Rams and Niners rosters are similar. I like a healthy Stafford over Purdy, and I am a huge believer in head coach Sean McVay.

I think Seattle could contend for a playoff spot. Mike Macdonald is a good, young coach who will have the Seahawks playing tough defense. Sam Darnold throwing to Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Cooper Kupp should make for a better offense this season.

Arizona will get 4-5 great games from quarterback Kyler Murray. Unfortunately, the other 12 or 13 games will be clunkers. For Arizona to have any chance at a playoff spot that ratio must even out.

South Division

This one is all Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers will win the division going away with Baker Mayfield continuing to impress.

I don’t think the Bucs are world beaters, but they are light years better than the rest of the division. The Panthers stink. The Saints stink. The Falcons are the only team with any semblance of a chance to challenge Tampa Bay.

Bryce Young may be figuring things out in Carolina, but the Panthers are probably two years away from contending. The Saints are in disarray of late, and have no true starting quarterback. It is a mess in the Big Easy. If Michael Pennix can make a big jump in year two, the Falcons could challenge .500. Atlanta has plenty of offensive weapons, but using them properly has always been a test for the coaches.

North Division

Green Bay is pushing all of their chips in, but I think Detroit will call and win the hand.

This division could be a real bear. All four teams give fans something to like and reason to believe. I think Detroit has the best total roster.

The Lions were decimated by injuries, particularly on defense a year ago. They still finished an amazing 15-2. The Lions did lose both coordinators, which could cause some problems until everyone gets on the same page. The offense is absolutely loaded and the players love playing with quarterback Jared Goff. It is easily the most talented offense in the NFC. Aidan Hutchinson will return to the defense to harass quarterbacks. It should be another special season in the Motor City.

Green Bay now has an elite pass rusher, making their defense a tough test for opponents. Will Jordan Love become elite? I am not sure that is going to happen. His receivers are good, but not great. There is no doubt the Packers will be real challengers for the NFC North title, but I think they fall just short.

Chicago will benefit more than any other team that changed coaches. Ben Johnson will get the best out of Caleb Williams and turn the Bears offense in to an efficient machine. I thought the Bears had a quality roster last year, and maintain that stance. Chicago should be good enough to exceed .500, but I just don’t know if that will get them to the playoffs.

Deciding to tie their playoff hopes to JJ McCarthy may be a fatal flaw for Minnesota. The Vikings have an abundance of weapons for McCarthy to work with, but it may not be enough. If McCarthy is better than I give him credit for, the Vikings should be playoff contenders. Otherwise, this could end up being a disappointing season for an otherwise solid roster.

East Division

It sure looks like it will be the Philly special again this year.

The one thing that could throw a wrench into the Eagles dominating this division is an injury —and he has always been injury prone— to stud runner Saquon Barkley. It is no secret that, despite winning the Super Bowl, Jalen Hurts did not have an exceptional year. Hurts is essentially a game manager, but if Barkley goes down —or even if he doesn’t— Hurts needs to be better. The rest of this roster is loaded. The biggest weakness may be the secondary, where oft traveled Adoree Jackson will be a starter. That said, the Eagles will still dominate this division and garner the top seed in the playoffs.

Washington should make the playoffs again, but it is hard to see every bounce going the Commanders way like last season. I also look for a little regression from star quarterback Jayden Daniels in his sophomore campaign. His number one target —Terry McLaurin— settled his contract impasse and will be ready for action. It should be another fun season in the nation’s capital.

Dallas is a circus, and owner Jerry Jones is the ringmaster. It is his money, and he has always made the final decisions. Truth be told, the Cowboys weren’t winning with Micah Parsons so why give in to his demands. The contract I have always said was a baffler is Dak Prescott’s contract. The Cowboys WILL NOT win with Prescott. It should be fun watching newly acquired wide receiver George Pickens meltdown. It will be a rebuild with a twist of lime in Dallas this year.

Russell Wilson is starting at quarterback for the Giants, but could be out of work by December. I am stunned he is the starter over Jameis Winston and rookie Jaxson Dart. The Giants are building a better roster, and they could potentially pass the Cowboys in the standings. Don’t expect much more.

NFC Championship: Lions over Eagles

AFC

West Division

Logic and the past decade tell me I should just pencil in the Kansas City Chiefs here. You are all well aware I have no logic and I don’t seek it, so I am penciling in the fighting Harbaughs.

Jim Harbaugh has proven to be a liar, a cheater, and a general weasel. He is also an excellent football coach that wins everywhere he goes. LA will be no different. Justin Herbert is a stud. Just ask that chick he is dating that I am supposed to know. I do wish he had a few more weapons on the outside, but the offense should be improved. That will couple with a solid defense and that Harbaugh grit all his teams play with.

Andy Reid just wins. However, his team is getting older. Even though they made the Super Bowl last year, there were chinks in the armor. Patrick Mahomes can only bail his team out so many times. The Chiefs will make the playoffs, but as a wildcard.

Denver is the figurative wildcard out west. Sean Payton is building a solid roster on both sides of the ball. If Bo Nix does it again this year then I will become a believer. Until then, I think the Broncos finish third in this difficult division.

I love Pete Carroll. He will need to be a miracle worker to get good quarterback play out of the duo of Geno Smith and Kenny Pickett. The rest of the team is being built nicely with a lot of young talent. Plus, Maxx Crosby is a beast. Pete is getting older —even though he looks like he is 50— so he will want to win sooner rather than later. Not this year.

South Division

Much like the NFC South, this division stinks.

Houston is the obvious pick here, as CJ Stroud will most likely bounce back to his rookie form. The defense should be excellent, and the wide receiver room is changing some this year. How much that group progresses may tell the story of the season. Nick Chubb in the backfield is a nice backup plan.

I don’t know what the Colts are doing, and neither do they. It looks like perennial Giants whipping boy Daniel Jones will start at quarterback. The Colts don’t have a bad roster, but how much they get out of Jones will determine if this is a 10 win team or a 7 win team.

I feel like Jacksonville should be better. Trevor Lawrence looked like a burgeoning star, but then he lost it and hasn’t found it again. The Jags have an excellent skill group, and super young. The arrow is trending up for the Jags, but not up enough this year.

Cam Ward will give Titans fans something interesting to watch. That is all.

North Division

Three teams that will challenge for a playoff spot and the Browns. Business as usual in the AFC North.

I think the Ravens have to be the pick here based on the overall strength of the roster. One of these years John Harbaugh and Lamar Jackson will figure out how to advance in the playoffs. It really is a Super Bowl roster. Lamar is always an injury risk, but his runs have become less frequent over the years. I still don’t believe he is a championship passer. The Ravens are just too strong not to pick. Hey, I think I used logic for once.

I previewed the Steelers last week in this column. I am drinking the Ayahuasca kool aid. If Aaron Rodgers remains upright, the rest of this team is good enough to get 10-11 wins.

I think Joe Burrow is the best quarterback in the NFL. Once again, I think Joe Burrow could get killed. Between Burrow and his tremendous skill players, the Bengals will score a lot of points. If Burrow remains injury free. Unfortunately for the Bengals, the defense will give up a lot of points.

The Browns have pulled Joe Flacco out of his retirement home to start at quarterback, despite drafting 24 quarterbacks. It will go as well as you are expecting.

AFC East

No. Brainer.

The Bills will win this division by Thanksgiving. The question is, can they finally advance to a Super Bowl? I still think the Bills could do better at receiver, but Josh Allen makes everyone better so it won’t hurt them. Watching this team on Hard Knocks allowed me to see just how together they are. I don’t see very many losses on the schedule.

This will be Mike McDaniel’s last year on South Beach. The Dolphins should finish second in this division, but may not reach .500.

The Patriots are heading in the right direction, and Mike Vrabel will get them there. Drake Maye looks legit, and the Pats could challenge Miami for second place.

Justin Fields will be added to the list of quarterbacks that didn’t work out with the Jets. New York is circling a black hole, and they don’t seem to getting out anytime soon.

Okay, I am supposed to wake somebody up for this part.

 

NFC Championship: Lions over Eagles
AFC Championship: Bills over Ravens

I am fully on the Lions bandwagon for the second year straight. This year they stay injury free and head to their first ever Super Bowl.

My head wants to pick the Ravens. My heart wants to pick the Bills. Sean McDermott makes me nervous as a head coach. Of course John Harbaugh isn’t much better. I am picking the Bills because it sets up a great storyline for Super Bowl XL.

The Lions have never been to a Super Bowl. The Bills have never won a Super Bowl, having the embarrassing experience of losing four straight. Something will have to give. Marv Levy has lived to be 100 just so he could see the Bills finally win a Super Bowl.

Super Bowl XL: Bills over Lions

The Two Cent Cracked Crystal Ball(#TCCCB) says you can take it to the bank. Just don’t take a whole lot.

Tweet of the Week

Is there anything better than a jolted ‘Bama fan?

 


The Weekly Shiny Penny

I was sad to watch Lee Corso do his last headgear pick. Corso has been a big part of our Saturdays for three decades or more. It is another tradition gone and another reminder of how old I am. Corso went 6-0 on his picks(I was 1-5). Tom Rinaldi moved to FOX a couple years ago, but did a tribute to Corso Saturday. Nobody does these segments better.

 


A Penny For My Final Thought…

LSU’s win over Clemson was the only thing to prevent Paul Finebaum and Greg Sankey from checking in as roommates on the seventh floor.

The SEC, no longer the dominant force in college football, had a rough start in big games. Texas, with an alleged loaded roster and a Manning at quarterback, was beaten by Ohio State. Later on Saturday, the supposed mighty Crimson Tide of Alabama were dominated by Florida State. The same Florida State that went 2-10 last year.

It is early and we should probably try to keep some perspective. Teams often get off to slow starts. Even the Duck got off on the wrong foot this year.

 

Here are some week one thoughts.

  • Freshman quarterbacks making first starts in big games is a tough assignment. Neither Arch Manning, Julian Sayin, nor CJ Carr were allowed to do a whole lot. The jury is still out, especially with Manning.
  • Defense is way ahead of offense early in this season.
  • Clemson is overrated…for the 278th time in school history.
  • Miami got away with Mario Cristobal being Mario Cristobal and Carson Beck being his average self. Still, Miami has some dudes.
  • Notre Dame now has a much narrower path to the playoffs.
  • I was told Notre Dame’s Jeremiah Love is the best running back in the country. He got 10 carries. QB CJ Carr got 11 carries.
  • James Franklin went for two while leading by 33 against an inferior team. In the last 30 seconds of the game he went ballistic over an officiating error, yelling multiple times, “You’re full of ____.” Aren’t we all, James. It is refreshing to see Franklin has his douche meter set to max right out of the gate.
  • Between botched snaps and shanked punts seemingly always getting great bounces, it was an interesting first week for punters.
  • USC put up 73 on Missouri State, in what amounted to a scrimmage that Lincoln Riley smartly took advantage of by playing 60+ players. If a game like this builds confidence in the players, great, but otherwise it is a total waste of time.
  • New Mexico gave us the best trick play of the week.

 

  • Arch Manning is not very good, whether that was week one or week ten. He has an odd throwing motion and made bad decisions. I also took note that Manning was the only player all day that had a police escort off the field. Nothing like being an underperforming, pampered nepo QB.
  • Kalen DeBoer should start packing. I said it when he was hired, and it is more true now. Following a legend is tough. DeBoer was never a good fit at Alabama, and rumors of players doing whatever they want whenever they want are running rampant. Ty Simpson just isn’t it at quarterback. Look for Keelon Russell to eventually start playing. Barring a culture change and better results, DeBoer is in serious trouble.
  • Bill Belichick’s girlfriend may tell him he has to retire again because she does not want to be seen with a loser.

Week one of the college football season is in the books. We need more good games like Texas/Ohio State, MiAmi/Notre Dame, Alabama/Florida State, and LSU/Clemson. The other sure thing is that Alabama fans are running around like the sky is falling, and that may very well be true. And who among us isn’t finding that entertaining?

Just my two cents…