The college football season will end in Miami on January 19.

Will it be a lion roar that night in Miami? Or perhaps a tiger growl? Could it be a bulldog bark or an elephant trumpeting? Dare I ask if it could be the quacking of ducks? What about a Matthew McConaughey moo? Surely we won’t be subjected to the cackle of a little leprechaun?

Could Conquest fill the Miami air as a white horse gallops around the field? Yea, I know but you have to let a guy dream.

The season starts Saturday in the obvious location of Ireland. Oh, you wacky college football power brokers. I am sure money had nothing to do with this idiocy. Anyway, that is the only game of meaning in the equally idiotic “Week 0”. Kansas State and Iowa State both have Big 12 championship aspirations, so a silly game across the Atlantic could end up haunting one team while propelling the other.

It is also the time of year where I have to go fetch the crystal ball that has it all.

After correctly calling Ohio State a year ago, not surprisingly The Two Cent Cracked Crystal Ball is unbearable to be around. He was drinking champagne coolies in the club when I called, so you can figure his ego is difficult to fit through the door. In fairness, he has been pretty good at this over the years. So, if your team shows up at the end of this column don’t despair.

Let’s get down to business.

Big 12

The cynic in me wants to just type, “who cares.”

But I’ll play along.

Here are some snippets for the also rans of this conference:

  • Scott Frost might be back at UCF, but 13-0 ain’t walking through that door any time soon.
  • With some luck, Arizona’s high point could be hanging with Snoop Dogg at the Arizona Bowl.
  • Keep Rich Rod away from the Mountaineer’s rifle during this rebuild for WVU.
  • After taking a pay cut, Mike Gundy may have to coach for free after this season at Oklahoma State.
  • Louisville fans continue to root for Scott Satterfield to fail at Cincinnati. After all, it is what Satterfield does best.
  • Remember Houston’s run and shoot days? Neither do they, but transfer QB Conner Weigman should get the Cougs bowling.
  • Prime won’t have time to wait on freshman QB Julian Lewis. Lewis is Prime’s kind of kid. Put him in coach. 
  • BYU is in a transition year waiting for Ryder Lyons to come save the day.
  • With Jalon Daniels back at QB, Kansas should go bowling but nothing more.

The top seven in the Big 12 could finish in about any order.

TCU head coach Sonny Dykes has a quality quarterback in Josh Hoover, and Dykes knows offense. I think the Horned Frogs schedule is too tough to manage much more than middle of the pack.

Baylor head coach Dave Aranda seemed to be on borrowed time until a second half surge last season. The Bears should have a quality offense, but I don’t know that they will stop enough people.

Cam Rising has been Utah’s quarterback for the better part of a decade. Devin Dampier is in from New Mexico and will give quality head coach Kyle Whittingham a more dynamic presence under center. They get Texas Tech, Arizona State, and Kansas State at home in one of the underrated home venues in football. The Utes could very well be a player.

Texas Tech, of all teams, has become the poster child for NIL and the portal. The Red Raiders are spending big and building through the portal. The offense should be potent, and the defense should be improved with the addition of some portal edge rushers. The three toughest games are on the road, so even though guns are definitely up I think Texas Tech falls just short.

I am a huge Matt Campbell fan. He has a veteran QB in Rocco Becht leading his Iowa State offense which was surprisingly potent a year ago. The defense should be better in Ames than last year, which should give Cyclones fans hope. The game in Ireland this weekend is huge. From there, at TCU is the toughest road game. Based on schedule and coach, I love Iowa State’s chances of returning to the Big 12 Championship Game.

If QB Avery Johnson makes the leap most think he will, Kansas State will have a great shot at securing the Big 12 playoff spot. Like Campbell, head coach Chris Klieman is fantastic. The receiving corps may be thin, and the secondary could be worrisome. Again, the Ireland game this weekend could be gigantic for Kansas State’s chances. The rest of the schedule is pretty favorable.

Arizona State came out of nowhere and rolled right into the playoffs where they coulda, woulda, shoulda, beat Texas. Cam Skattebo is gone but Heisman candidate Sam Leavitt is back at quarterback. There is talent in the running back room and Jordan Tyson is potentially the best receiver in the conference. Additionally, nine starters return from a solid defense. At the risk of sounding repetitive, I love Kenny Dillingham as a coach. The Sun Devils have the toughest schedule to navigate of the contenders.

Despite a devilish schedule I think Arizona State is the best team in the conference, and I’m not sure it is super close. Iowa State, Kansas State, Texas Tech, and maybe even Utah could dethrone ASU and have very outside chances at a playoff berth. In the end I am going with talent over schedule. My pick…

ACC

The ACC is more than just Tobacco Road. Now it is Tobacco Road, Big East castoffs, Stanford, Cal, and Bill Belichick taking orders from a woman 50 years younger than him(and God bless him for that).

How about some snippets for the also rans in the ACC.

  • Dearest mother, we may win this first battle on the big island but I regret to inform you that we will suffer great losses this season. Unless Andrew Luck suits up for Stanford, interim head coach Frank Reich will not have any answers.
  • Wake Forest will have a long enough season that new coach Jake Dickert will wish he was back on the Palouse.
  • Tony Elliot is one of several coaches that may not survive another losing season. Virginia just doesn’t have the horses to compete most weeks. 6-6 would constitute a miracle.
  • I think Cal has potential mainly because of head coach Justin Wilcox. Plus, he hired reputable OC Bryan Harsin. Playing only 3 games east of the Mississippi is helpful.
  • The good news is Bill O’Brien will get to use lots of his favorite curse words with this Boston College team. The bad news is Bill O’Brien will get to use lots of his favorite curse words.
  • Even though I think Fran Brown is a fine coach, he will find out just how hard it is to maintain success at Syracuse.
  • Brent Pry is the second coach on this list that could be in trouble if Virginia Tech doesn’t exceed expectations. It helps his cause to have Kyle Drones at quarterback.
  • NC State has CJ Bailey back at QB, but that won’t be nearly enough.
  • I think there is a real chance Bill Belichick is a one and done at North Carolina. Although the schedule sets up nicely for the Tar Heels.
  • Loudmouth Pat Narduzzi will be fired. There is a new sheriff in town running Pitt Athletics, and he will not tolerate more losing. Narduzzi needs to get to a minimum of 7 wins. It is possible. It is also possible the Panthers lose 7. 
  • Duke is great in basketball, while being very mediocre —on a good day— in football. Nine bowl games in the past 13 seasons has changed that perception. Manny Diaz should get to 8 wins this year.
  • Florida State picked up some key additions in the offseason to try and right a very, very bad wrong last season. Maybe the biggest addition is offensive coordinator Gus Malzhan. Look for the Seminoles to bounce back with 8 wins.

The rest of the teams have, at a minimum, a fighting chance to reach the conference championship.

SMU must replace almost an entire defense that was elite last year. The Mustangs also must replace most of their skill position players. However, Greg Jennings is back at quarterback which should be enough for them to maintain a top 5 ACC finish. The schedule will be far more difficult this season.

USC transfer Miller Moss should fare better against this Louisville schedule than he did with USC’s schedule. Moss isn’t mobile so he needs solid protection. Jeff Brohm’s hard nosed approach should have the Cards in the hunt. On paper, there are only three games that they won’t be favored to win. If they can upset Clemson at home, the Cards could make some real noise.

One of my favorite players is Haynes King, the Georgia Tech quarterback. King is back, along with running back Jamal Haynes. The defense has a lot of change and could be a problem. Brent Key showed he is a coach willing to expect big things. If Louisville’s schedule is easy, the Yellowjackets schedule is even friendlier as they miss Miami. The Yellowjackets won’t sneak up on people this year, but could still be in the mix.

I have never been sold on Carson Beck. Miami will need big plays from Beck, but he won’t be as effective as Cam Ward. The receiving corps is all new, and the defense was Charming soft last season. Then there is the Mario Cristobal effect. Cristobal is almost always good for at least one blown game per season. Looking at the talent level across the conference there is no reason for Miami to not be in the championship game. But that is why they play the games.

Clemson is the favorite in the ACC. Cade Klubnick is the real deal at quarterback and has a great group of receivers. Tom Allen was brought in after a season at Penn State to jump start a once proud defense. Much like Miami, the talent discrepancy between the Tigers and everyone else is massive. The toughest games on the schedule are out of conference games. LSU to begin the season and at South Carolina to end the season.

This one is a no brainer for me. I don’t trust Mario Cristobal or his quarterback, and the next tier of teams are still a step or two behind. Even though I think they lose at least one of their tough out of conference games, Clemson will hold that Tiger right into the playoffs. Besides, Dabo has God on his side. My pick…

SEC

The SEC plays eight league games, thus protecting the brand with cupcake out of conference games late in the season. The league should be forced to go to nine games like other conferences. Having said that, this league is super deep.

Here are snippets on the also rans as well as some second tier teams.

  • Mississippi State stinks. Jeff Lebby needs to find a magic wand in a hurry.
  • Kentucky stinks. I am not sure if Mark Stoops survives another bad year.
  • Vanderbilt has a winner in head coach Clark Lea and quarterback Diego Pavia. Pavia is tough as nails, but Vandy just doesn’t have the horses to hang with the upper echelon teams.
  • I am a Sam Pittman fan, and quarterback Taylen Green is a real talent under center. Unfortunately, Arkansas doesn’t have the depth to their roster to compete.
  • After some solid seasons, Missouri is looking at a backslide. Former Penn State quarterback Beau Pribula gets a chance to shine.
  • Talent influx hasn’t added up to wins at Auburn for Hugh Freeze. Former stud quarterback Jackson Arnold transferred in from Oklahoma and will have a top duo of receivers in which to throw the ball. The Tigers will need to win their “toss up” games to get on the right side of the win column for the season.
  • Tennessee spent the offseason dealing with the Nico Iamalavea situation. A new quarterback and some turnover on the rest of the roster figures to doom the Colunteers for a bit of a backslide.
  • I am not as sold on the gambler John Mateer being a star for Oklahoma. Mateer won’t be throwing against the Washington State schedule this year. Even so, Brent Venables is a defensive wizard and will once again have a defense that Carrie’s the team. The Sooners have a brutal schedule, but could help the entire conference by beating Michigan in week two.
  • Texas A&M almost made the SEC Championship Game a year ago, but it never felt like they were nearly that good. Quarterback Marcel Reed showed promise and will take snaps behind a great offensive line. The defense may take a step back this year. Eight wins seems reasonable with their schedule.
  • Ole Miss and Lane Kiffin are building extensively through the portal. It is a great way to get proven talent, but those portal teams don’t always perform cohesively. That is my fear for the Lane Train this year. The good news is the road schedule is fairly easy, with the exception of a trip to Georgia. That should allow Lane to get to 8 wins.
  • Florida has two concerns heading into 2025. The Gators schedule is brutal, meaning that three losses are almost built in. The other concern is keeping star quarterback DJ Lagway healthy, which hasn’t been easy. Billy Napier saved his job with the second half surge last year, but the ice is still thin in Gainsville for the head coach.

The remainder of the teams in the SEC could be playoff teams.

I am much higher on South Carolina than most. There are two reasons for my optimism, head coach Shane Beamer and quarterback LeNorris Sellers. Sellers is a game changer and found consistency as last year went along. The defense has a lot of turnover from a year ago, which is a concern. Maybe I am buying in to “Beamer Ball” too much, but I like the Gamecocks to build on last season’s near playoff miss.

LSU has as much talent as any team in the conference, including top NFL quarterback prospect Garrett Nussmeier. LSU also has Brian “I’ve never seen a big game I can’t lose” Kelly. LSU’s schedule is manageable and that talent is real. The Tigers have a very good chance of being a playoff team.

I don’t think Kalen DeBoer is a bad coach, but I am not sure if he can handle the spotlight of coaching in Tuscaloosa, following the living legend Nick Saban. DeBoer isn’t short on talent, especially on defense. New quarterback Ty Simpson has accolades behind his name but no experience. There are 4-5 potential losses on that schedule if the Tide isn’t playing well. There is a chance, there is always a chance at Alabama, to be very good. My concern is at quarterback.

Georgia only returns seven starters, which could be a real problem. Gunner Stockton was less than impressive at quarterback in the playoff game last year. Georgia would be doing well with the schedule they have to win 9 games. Once again, the defense will have to carry the Bulldogs until the offense catches up.

Texas has the most overall talent of any team in the entire country. Steve Sarkisian has always been a recruiting king. The big question for the Longhorns is just how good is Arch Manning. Manning is far more athletic than Quin Ewers, whom he replaces. He made need to be athletic with a largely new offensive line. Manning will definitely create more big plays. The schedule is more difficult than a year ago, but the tougher games are spread out. Texas opens at Ohio State, then goes to Florida a month later, to Georgia a month after that, and close with rival Texas A&M. Going undefeated is a possibility, but not likely. 

If I could trust Brian Kelly, I would pick LSU. I don’t trust Brian Kelly. Consequently, I am going with the talent. Nope, used to be Alabama. Not Georgia either. My pick…

Big Ten

The Big Ten has won two straight national titles, rendering the SEC almost obsolete. Okay, not really. But the Big Ten no longer plays second fiddle to the almighty Oz no matter how much Greg Sankey kicks and screams.

This year the league appears top heavy to me, but the top goes deeper than usual.

Some snippets on the wannabe teams.

  • At least Purdue still has that giant bass drum. Hey, at least it is something.
  • Northwestern boasts really smart kids. That won’t equate to many wins.
  • Mike Locksley has proven beyond the shadow of a doubt that Maryland is not a football school. As usual, Locksley boasts some really good players, but far too many bad players.
  • Jonathan Smith is a very good football coach as he proved at Oregon State, but it is going to take a minute to rebuild the Michigan State Spartans.
  • Greg Schiano is doing the best anyone can at Rutgers, and it is still a struggle to reach bowl eligibility.
  • I am stunned that Luke Fickell is closer to being fired at Wisconsin than he is to bringing the Badgers back to prominence. Hey Penn State fans, remember when this is the guy you were begging for to take over for an “embattled” James Franklin when he was “headed to USC”?
  • Nico Iamaleava should be good for a couple wins. He is the best quarterback the Bruins have played in quite some time. UCLA is inching in the right direction. They should get to bowl eligible this year.
  • PJ Fleck keeps rowing the boat, but he could use some better oars. With an inexperienced QB, the Gophers could ground and pound even more than usual. Fleck does have a habit of finding 7 wins or so on every schedule.

The top ten teams could all be dangerous to one another.

Washington head coach Jedd Fisch usually gets the best out of his teams. A completely revamped offensive line could slow the Huskies a bit. Washington has the advantage of hosting most of their “big boy” opponents. Husky Stadium is historically one of the tougher road trips. With that in mind, don’t be surprised if Washington pulls an upset so,where along the line.

Kirk Ferencz wins 8 games. It is just what he does. With the Hawkeyes schedule this year, even a more potent offense may struggle to reach that mark. Indiana, Penn State, and Oregon all come calling. Much like Washington, don’t be shocked if Iowa upsets one of those teams.

Nebraska is trending up under Matt Rhule. Dominic Raiola is a rising star at quarterback and Nebraska has always played stingy defense. The Huskers get Michigan, USC, and Iowa at home and have Penn State on the road. Nebraska benefits from avoiding Ohio State and Oregon this year. Nine wins seems very possible in Lincoln.

Illinois plays a sort of old school Big Ten football. They have an excellent offensive line to run behind. Quarterback Luke Altmyer is a veteran who will need to find some new receivers this year. The Illini defense is stout, allowing only 21 points per game a year ago. This team won 10 games a year ago and expects more of the same. They host USC and Ohio State and visit Indiana and Washington. My gut tells me 9 wins is the right number for Illinois.

Indiana has figured out the modern day formula for success, with some help from the Big Ten. Three easy out of conference games and a home slate that only features Illinois as an upper echelon opponent. On the road they go to Oregon, Iowa, and Penn State. If you are going to talk as much as head coach Curt Cignetti then you better back it up. I am not sure Cal transfer Fernando Mendoza will be an upgrade at quarterback, but that schedule begs the Hoosiers to win 10 games.

No team will be jeered in visiting stadiums more than Michigan. Will they circle the wagons like they did under Honest Abe Harbaugh? Or will that add to the pressure freshman Bryce Underwood may be feeling? Underwood has the hype but does he have the game. The defense lost a good amount of talent, but should still be solid. The running game should ease the pressure for Underwood. The Wolverines have Oklahoma, Nebraska, and USC on the road and host rival Ohio State, who they have on lockdown. The schedule is not horrible, so look for Michigan to challenge double digit wins. Just hope for the worst.

The USC Trojans have the number one recruiting class for next year, but how good will they be this year. The Trojans had fourth quarter leads in every game But one last year. They were far better than their record. Can they find a fourth quarter resolve with Jayden Maiava at the helm. He is more of a gunslinger and will have ample weapons at his disposable. For the first time ever a Lincoln Riley coached team may have a defense they can rely on. Staying injury free is crucial on that side of the ball. The biggest question mark in my mind is the offensive line. If it is solid this team can be dangerous. USC has a daunting road schedule with trips to Oregon, Nebraska, Illinois, and Notre Dame. That is three trips to the Midwest, one of which is three time zones. I think this is a ten win team, but nine may be more realistic. But let’s face it, I am a homer.

I am not sure I am all that high on Oregon this year. Dante Moore is unproven at quarterback and head coach Dan Lanning tends to mess something up. He waited until the playoffs last year. Aside from quarterback, there is a ton of turnover on both sides of the ball. New players will have to fill some big shoes. The schedule is ultra favorable. A trip for a White Out game in Happy Valley won’t end well, but the only other marginally tough road games are at Iowa and Washington. The home slate includes Indiana and USC. I think this could be a backslide year for Oregon, but I’m not sure that schedule will allow it. Ten wins seems more than possible.

Will the defending champs have a hangover? More importantly, will freshman Julian Sayin be as good as advertised under center? He will have the best receiving corps in the country at his disposal, and an offensive line that returns three and hopefully stays healthy. The defense lost some players, but the biggest change is not having Jim Knowles as coordinator. He is off to greener and happier valleys and is replaced by NFL reject Matt Patricia. For me it comes down to the quarterback, because there is still a lot of talent in Columbus. The Buckeyes lead off with Texas and have trips to Washington, Illinois, and Michigan, while Penn State comes calling in October. Most likely the season will be determined by the Penn State and Michigan games.

Is this finally the year James Franklin truly puts the Happy in Happy Valley? My thought is, if not now then when? Penn State is loaded at most positions including quarterback. Drew Allar is a senior and might be the first pick in next year’s NFL Draft. Allar needs to do two things to max out his potential. First, stop pouting when things don’t go well. It is time to be a leader all of the time. Second, find consistency with his mechanics. For two quarters he looks all world, but then he suddenly loses accuracy and struggles. The kid has all of the tools, and I think he will display that this year. He will have the best running back duo to hand the ball to in the country. Nick Singleton is a stud, and Kaytron Allen is right behind. The biggest thing Penn State did was upgrade the receiver position. Trebor Pena will become a safety blanket for Allar, and Kyron Hudson will make tough catches. The defense lost some big names, but returns a lot of great players. If Jim Knowles, fresh off a title with Ohio State, is as good as advertised this unit will be tough. Home dates with Oregon, Indiana, and Nebraska plus a trip to Iowa litter the schedule. The season will come down to whether James Franklin can finally beat Ohio State. The game is in Columbus, but the Nittany Lions will have the better team.

I live on the edge of Happy Valley and am surrounded by blue and white nonsense. I listen as fans brag about how good their team is and how much they hate the head coach. Despite winning 10 or 11 games most seasons, James Franklin is public enemy number one. Is this the year he beats Ohio State? Does he win a Big Ten championship? Dare I say, a national championship? Will fans have to grudgingly give him his props? Hmm. My pick…

Notre Dame

I will not spend a lot of time on a team that refuses to join a conference. It is bogus, and college football should speak up.

The Irish will be good, but how good depends on how fast CJ Carr integrates at quarterback. With their style and Jeremiah Love in the backfield, Carr’s transition should be smooth. Notre Dame returns a lot of talent, but they do have a more difficult schedule than usual. Trips to Miami and Arkansas, while hosting Boise State, Texas A&M, and USC will give the Irish ample opportunity to lose. But, will they? Notre Dame should easily make the playoff field.

Playoffs

This is when Two Cent Cracked Crystal Ball(#TCCCB) really starts paying attention. Here are the twelve teams in order of seeding:

  1. Penn State
  2. Texas
  3. Georgia
  4. Notre Dame
  5. Clemson
  6. Ohio State
  7. Oregon
  8. Alabama
  9. Arizona State
  10. LSU
  11. Miami
  12. Boise State

The quarterfinals(Where steam starts to emit from #TCCCB):

  • Penn State over Arizona State
  • Texas over LSU
  • Ohio State over Georgia
  • Clemson over Notre Dame

The semifinals(#TCCCB laser focused):

  • Penn State over Clemson
  • Texas over Ohio State

Penn State gets two small breaks in the bracket on their way to Miami, while Texas has to beat an SEC team and Ohio State in a revenge game from the beginning of the year.

The Championship Game(#TCCCB just came out of a locked room where he spent seconds parsing small details):

  • Penn State over Texas

Miami coach Mario Cristobal is heard muttering, “So this is what the stadium looks like with fans.” James Franklin sprints over to the Penn State fans screaming, “How ya like me now?” A couple blue and white clad fans yell back, “Let’s see you do it again.” And somewhere in the great beyond, Joe Paterno grabs Richard Nixon and says, “Let’s see you change this one.”(You oldsters get that reference)

National Champions: Penn State Nittany Lions


Tweet of the Week

For a while now I have felt like I was repeating my Two Cent Takes on my podcasts here at the site. Starting now, my Two Cent Takes will be heard on my Musings of a Sports Fanatic podcast as well as football takes on the Wall2WallFootball podcast. It just makes sense. Even though social media can be a cesspool sometimes I still enjoy Twitter, and there are always some great tweets that catch my eye. Therefore, this space will now contain the tweet of the week.

One of my favorite comedy skits of all time, and finally Who(Hu) ended up on first base.

 


The Weekly Shiny Penny

I told you months ago that you were watching greatness when you watched Scottie Scheffler. Now he has a signature shot to add to his resume. Amazing.

 

A Penny For My Final Thought…

The college football playoff is currently at 12 teams.

The college football playoffs should be at 8 teams.

The power brokers of the sport would never go to less teams even though it would end the byes in the first round. Nah, less games means less TV. Less TV means less money.

Most of this summer conference commissioners and other very important people met to discuss the future of the playoffs. It seemed as though it would be announced that future playoffs would go to 16 teams. That, too, would eliminate byes. But it is too many teams.

Eventually the talks ended with nobody being able to agree on a new format.

Why?

Greed and green.

The SEC still thinks their conference deserves a larger portion of the bids. Meanwhile the Big Ten was proposing a system with equal automatic qualifiers for both the SEC and Big Ten. Meanwhile the ACC and Big 12 seethed at being treated like throw ins to a playoff system.

For a few weeks everyone went radio silent, but then last week Big Ten commissioner Tony Pettiti spoke up. Here is the genius idea he and his Big Ten acolytes want considered.

 


Remember when people were ecstatic that Kevin Warren was no longer the Big Ten commissioner? Pettiti doubled down on the stupidity.

I guess my wish for an 8 team playoff is so far in the rearview mirror it can’t be seen anymore. This plan is maximum absurdity. The only thing I heard that is remotely positive is it would end the conference championship games.

28 teams?

Repeat after me: college football is not college basketball.

That is the entire top 25 plus three.  

 Well, at least the ACC and Big 12 would get more bids. Plus, no more complaining about useless bowl games. Heck, they would need all of them for the playoffs.

This is just another example of how greed is ruining sports. These fat cats have never seen a bag of money they won’t grab, even when it is completely moronic.

But, yea, tell me again how the players are greedy.

Just my two cents…