It couldn’t wait until March 1.

 

Madness. Michigan State over Maryland.

Then Saturday, March 1, when Madness season officially begins.

 

Madness. Tennessee over Alabama.

Technically, we are in the pre-Madness stage of March. First we finish up the regular season. Next, the craziness of conference tournaments runs us full blown to the Madness in two weeks.

That means you have two weeks to get your work excuses lined up for March 20 and 21. Come down with a 48 hour bug, take some personal time, or maybe you were lucky enough to have Elon fire you. Whatever the case, it’s time to get ready for the Madness. 

Now that March is here, it is time for me and my genius friend to start formulating our thoughts on this college hoops season.

Who should be in? Who should be out? Who could be a bid stealer come Championship Week.

ACC

This is easily the worst I have ever seen this conference. Duke is phenomenal and leaps and bounds better than everyone else, then a really solid Clemson team, and finally the upstart in Louisville. Every other team ranges from mediocre to horrific. It is quite the fall from grace for the standard bearer in college hoops. So with that in mind, here is how I think things shake out in the ACC.

  • In: Duke, Clemson, Louisville
  • Bubble: North Carolina, SMU, Wake Forest
  • Bid Stealer: Georgia Tech

Duke is a Final Four caliber team. One has to question whether playing bad ACC teams for the past two months will have them ready for tournament action.

Clemson is trending up. The Tigers made the Elite Eight a year ago and have a veteran team this year. They are tough, get good guard play, and can muck it up —a trait conducive to winning tournament games.

Louisville is trending down. The Cards look like they have lost their legs a bit. They have a short bench and that may be catching up to them. Regardless of the postseason results, what Pat Kelsey has done at Louisville is nothing short of remarkable. The dancing will be spectacular, and already is in Louisville.

 

 

The only bubble team that has a shot right now is North Carolina. And that is because they are North Carolina. The Tar Heels and SMU have a combined 1 quad one win. Wake has played their way out the last two weeks. I think, ultimately, the Tar Heels will get a bid as a last four in team.

There will most likely be no NC State this year in the ACC. Georgia Tech has the best chance. The Yellowjackets have been playing well for a month now, and could shock a higher seed early on. But win the whole thing? Doubtful.

Big East

The Big East is now Rick Pitino’s world and everyone else, including Danny Hurley, is just living in it. You know Pitino is loving the moment when he breaks out his famous white suit.

 

Year two for Pitino has always been the big year in all of his coaching jobs.

 

Pitino’s presence coupled with UConn being two time defending national champs keeps the Big East in the spotlight.

  • In: St. John’s, Creighton, Marquette, UConn
  • Bubble: Xavier, Villanova
  • Bid Stealer: Georgetown

St. John’s was my sleeper Final Four pick at the start of the season, and I still feel that way. If Marquette can get going again, I think they could be an Elite Eight team. No threepeat for UConn.

Right now, Xavier is a half step ahead of Villanova in terms of bubble cache mainly because Villanova has three bad losses. Neither team can afford to lose another regular season game. Both could use an upset win in round one of the Big East tournament.

Again, there is little chance of a bid stealer in the Big East. Ed Cooley and Georgetown would be the most likely option.

Big 12

This may not be the Big 12 of previous years, but there are still some really good teams with a really good chance to do damage in the Big Dance. Recently import Houston leads the way, and new Pac-12 import Arizona has picked up the slack for teams like Baylor who have fallen off. It is a good sign when your bell cow —Kansas— is having an off year but the conference is still prominent.

  • In: Houston, Texas Tech, Iowa State, Arizona, BYU, Kansas
  • Bubble: Baylor, West Virginia
  • Bid Stealer: Kansas State

If Houston can score, they can get to the Final Four. They beat Kansas last night in a typical rock fight. My fear is they have a game where LJ Cryer doesn’t make shots.

Iowa State and Arizona are the types of teams that could end up in the Elite Eight or lose in the first round.Texas Tech is the team I think could make the deepest run. The Red Raiders are finally healthy and have a star in JT Toppin. BYU is intriguing. That will be a tough offense to shut down. The Cougars aren’t always defensive stalwarts, but they will outscore most teams.

Kansas is struggling, and nobody is feeling sorry for the Jayhawks. As a matter of fact, Jayhawks fans have turned on the team prompting a weird released statement from head coach Bill Self.

 

It isn’t out of the realm of possibility that Kansas has won its last game this year. Hunter Dickinson is the kiss of death.

I think Baylor is in with one more win. West Virginia, on the other hand, is in real trouble. The Mountaineers have some good wins, but will need a sweep this week to sneak into the tournament.

Kansas State is the ultimate streak team. If they have one more streak in them, the Wildcats could steal a bid.

Big Ten

Tom Izzo is finished, he said. The game has passed him by, shouted the same fool. Who was that fool that made such blatantly incorrect statements? Oh yea, that’s right. It was me. I really did believe those things, but one of the coaching legends shoved those words back in my face. This is one of Izzo’s great coaching jobs. The Spartans aren’t overly talented, but they play as a team better than anyone in the country. Oh, and they rule the Big Ten.

  • In: Michigan State, Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, Oregon, Purdue, Maryland, UCLA
  • Bubble: Ohio State, Indiana, Nebraska
  • Bid Stealer: Rutgers

I don’t see a Final Four team in this bunch.

Izzo has done a great job, but I can’t see the Spartans reeling off 4 games to reach the Final Four. Michigan looks a lot like a one and done. Purdue is also trending down. UCLA is hit or miss because they simply don’t score enough.

 The other four teams are at least interesting possibilities. Wisconsin has been solid all year long. Illinois has been mostly disappointing, but the Illini have the best roster in this conference. Maryland has a dynamic offense plus a star in Derek Queen. Oregon plays its best ball in March under Dana Altman.

Ohio State has good computer numbers, but I can’t see a 15 loss Big Ten team getting in. That could very well be Ohio State’s fate. Indiana and Nebraska have mediocre at best computer numbers. I think Nebraska is out. The Huskers just don’t look like a tournament team. If Indiana can win two more games they get in and Mike Woodson gets some satisfaction.

 

Rutgers has two players that could put the team on their back. If Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper go off and Rutgers chooses to play some defense, the Scarlet Knights could be legitimate bid stealers in the Big Ten tournament.

SEC

Powerhouse. Juggernaut. Elite.

SEC.

The SEC dominated the non conference part of the season, and they continue to show their dominance in conference play. The good news is every game is a chance to boost your resume. The bad news is every game is a chance to damage your resume.

  • In: Auburn, Alabama, Florida, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Missouri, Kentucky, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt
  • Bubble: Georgia, Arkansas, Texas, Oklahoma
  • Bid Stealer: None

Auburn is the best team in the SEC. They are also the most unlikable team, led by a loud mouth coach in Bruce Pearl and a loud mouth 25 year old player in Chad Baker-Mazara. Who’d have thought a Bruce Pearl team would celebrate beating a depleted Kentucky team with this questionable celebration.

 

I guess I am old and don’t get the whole thing. If Auburn doesn’t win it all, then all was for naught just like every other Bruce Pearl coached team.

I don’t think Alabama plays enough defense while Tennessee doesn’t play enough offense. Florida has a really good shot at making the Final Four. The Gators also may not play enough defense. All the other teams are good, but not good enough.

I placed the bubble teams in the order I think they will be considered. I think Georgia has a great chance to win its last two games, which will put them at 8-10. That will be more than good enough to make the field. After Arkansas’s disaster in South Carolina over the weekend, the Hogs may have to win two more games. I think a split in their games this week may be good enough, but another win in the conference tournament would be helpful. I think Texas and Oklahoma will ultimately fall short.

Everyone Else

I don’t think there will be as many bids left for the “smaller” conferences as usual. Let’s look at who will get a bid regardless of whether they win their conference tournament.

  • In: Memphis, VCU, Drake, New Mexico, Utah State, St. Mary’s, Gonzaga
  • Bubble: UC San Diego, Colorado State, San Diego State, Boise State

All of the bubble teams above are technically bid stealers, although they may simply steal a bid from someone else in their own conference. The Mountain West probably gets three, but not four, bids. With that in mind, here are my final four in the tournament that will be keeping fingers crossed that there aren’t a bunch of bid stealers.

  • North Carolina
  • Arkansas
  • Indiana
  • Villanova

Villanova would be the first to go if there are bid stealers, followed by Indiana, Arkansas, and North Carolina. If not, what a tremendous First Four we would have to start off the Madness.

The Two Cent Cracked Crystal Ball and I are just getting warmed up. It is time to enjoy the last couple games of the regular season and the start of Championship Week. The first bid goes out on Saturday. Then the big boys get going with their conference tournaments. Everyone gets their one last chance —unless you are bottom three in the Big Ten and ACC or bottom four in the Ivy— to make a March miracle. Some teams will most likely play their way out, while other teams will play their way in to the Madness.

Then it will be time.

The Big Dance.

Get your dance moves ready.

 

It is March. Bring on the Madness.

Two Cent Takes

NFL

~Matthew Stafford will remain a Ram. That was always going to be the case. Steelers fans dreaming if they think anyone other than Justin Fields is going to be their quarterback. The question is will this be the first team to bench a quarterback and then pay him more money to come back and start?

~The Steelers promised some rather big changes. Mike Tomlin even said so much. Um, is a new assistant linebacker coach big? This organization is becoming a joke.

~Tee Higgins will have the franchise tag put on him for the second straight year in Cincinnati. Smart move for a team that should bounce back next year. Higgins and the Bengals will try to work out a long term contract. This is why players agreed to the franchise tag rule. It gives players more time to work out a deal that they like without leaving their current team.

 NHL

~Keep an eye on the Penguins between now and Friday’s trade deadline. The rebuild is in full swing, so one would expect more trades that will bring more draft capital to a team that already has tons of high picks in the next three years. Would the Pens consider trading Kris Letang? Rikard Rakell? They definitely should.

NBA

~76ers fans finally got hit with the punchline to this 2024-25 joke. Joel Embiid out for the season. Gosh, that was money well spent. Kudos to this elite front office in Philly. Paul George has also been a brilliant signing.

MLB

~Can all the Pirates Twitter fanboys please quit texting every time someone hits a spring training home run. It’s spring training. The season starts in less than a month and Tommy Pham is still the starting right fielder and I may go down and tryout at first base. Tweet at me when something meaningful happens.

~Kudos to baseball for trying out the strike zone challenge that is used in the minor leagues. Now tell me why it is just a spring training trial? As bad as ball/strike umpiring has gotten, why not fully institute this system in the regular season?

The Weekly Shiny Penny

We are all probably getting sick of the three letters N, I, L. College athletics is forever changed. But I have been saying it  since the beginning of NIL that some kids do great things with that money. Tennessee basketball chose to take some of their NIL cash and donate it to Dickie V and his ongoing crusade against cancer. Good for Rick Barnes and his players.

 

A Penny For My Final Thought…

In this portal era of college basketball, rosters can, and will, completely change from one year to the next. There will be little loyalty, and fans will struggle to get to know players before they leave for greener pastures.

Some coaches, like Rick Pitino, openly admit they are not really looking at high school recruits. Instead, they will rely on transfers to fill out the openings in their rosters. Pitino doesn’t think you can win with younger players. Teams will hope to retain its better players and fill in with portal transfers.

Kansas is a perfect example that the portal method doesn’t always work out for the best.

I would argue that some teams are still better off building through recruiting and retention. Penn State is one of those teams.

The need to win immediately rules the college landscape. Curt Cignetti did it with Indiana football. In basketball, Pat Kelsey and Dusty May are doing it at Louisville and Michigan respectively. Instant gratification is certainly attainable in this era.

Mike Rhoades tried to go the instant gratification route. It didn’t work out.

Rhoades tried to build his team around veteran transfers like Ace Baldwin, Nick Kern, Zach Hicks, and Puff Johnson. Rhoades didn’t give many minutes to any young players, instead trying to win now with the veterans.

Penn State doesn’t invest in basketball.

The Jordan Center stinks. It is a concert venue being used for basketball.

The fan base is always waiting for the worst. Years of losing has made the fans cynical on their best days and doomsayers on their worst days.

New AD Pat Kraft has said the right things and they have raised the amount they are willing to pay a coach. But the NIL budget for basketball is likely not great.

So why not try to build?

Accept growing pains with young players, searching for that year or two that the approach can yield success. Penn State was never going to win with the current group of transfers. But Rhoades, like most coaches, wanted to win immediately.

Ace Baldwin certainly wasn’t a player to build your team around.

Was he scrappy? I guess.

Was he a good defender? Sure.

Was he tough? I suppose.

Was he a winner that made others better? No.

Don’t believe me? Just look at the record the last two years when Rhoades centered the team around Baldwin. Below .500.

Rhoades had 8 freshmen and sophomores on the roster. Plus burgeoning star Yanic Konan-Niederhauser is a junior. The young kids were secondary as Rhoades was trying to win now with the vets. But they weren’t nearly good enough.

All three Penn State fans that didn’t jump ship weeks ago should be optimistic for the future. If Rhoades can hold on to his young players and add a transfer or two in the right areas the Nittany Lions will be better in the future than they were with Baldwin and company.

Don’t forget, Kayden Mingo leads a really good recruiting class next year. Mingo was the second rated player in basketball rich New York State. Mason Blackwood, another four star, and 7’0” Justin Houser arrive next year as well.

If Rhoades can add a shooter and another big body from the portal things will be looking up for Penn State.

College basketball isn’t a one size fits all sport. Some schools will still be better off building a team through recruiting and supplementing with the portal. Immediate gratification won’t happen for everyone that goes the portal route.

Mike Rhoades biggest mistake was eschewing his youngsters in favor of trying to win now with players that just weren’t winners.

Rhoades’ leash will eventually get shorter in Happy Valley. Year three needs to show progress, and the best way to do that is with a core of young players that you can hopefully keep there for at least a couple years.

With some luck, and a better strategy from Rhoades, maybe next year at this time Penn State fans will be crossing their fingers hoping the Nittany Lions end up,on the right side of the bubble..

Just my two cents…