By Tim Clark / / Column, Tim's Two Cents
Two

Some how we have reached the one third mark of the college football season. As September gooses October onto the calendar, it seems like a good time to assess what we have learned so far.

ACC

As suspected, Miami should be able to sleepwalk their way through the ACC schedule. A November date with Notre Dame will allow us to better evaluate the Canes.

I predicted Louisville would be the second best team in the league, then they lost last week to Wake Forest at home. Wake coach Jake Dickert is putting his name directly in the eye of the next coaching carousel storm. As for Louisville, same story different year.

SMU would be the logical next team up, but they lost to Louisville, looked miserable beating Florida State, and struggled with Missouri State. No on the Mustangs.

Cal was my team to keep an eye on. I have kept an eye on the Bears lack of offense even with high end quarterback Karon-Keawe Sagapolutele. He is one of many prominent quarterbacks struggling around the country. Possibly Tosh Lupoi is an elite recruiter and a poor head coach.

Pitt, Duke, and Virginia Tech are all 4-0. It would be in the ACC’s best interest for at least one of these teams to end the season with only 1 or 2 losses. Pitt plays at Virginia Tech this week, so someone will get loss number one. I certainly wouldn’t rely on Pat Narduzzi with several tough games and at least one easy one that he will lose, and we know how James Franklin feels about big games. Duke has the easiest schedule of the three and could make for an interesting opponent for Miami in the ACC Championship Game, what with the Canes poaching Duke’s quarterback during the offseason.

As hard as it is for me to believe, it looks more likely that good ‘ol Dabo and his Clemson Tigers will be the next best team to Miami. A very distant next.

Big 12

The Big 12 is neck and neck for worst Power 4 conference with the ACC. The Big 12 has more depth at the top, but it is missing a Miami type team.

Four teams are in position after the first month of the season. Soft schedules are the way in the Big 12. Utah and BYU play in early November. BYU also has Notre Dame in October, but win or lose it won’t affect their conference standing. A week later Texas Tech plays at Oklahoma State, the surprise of the conference.

 I like Texas Tech far less than I did a month ago. I like BYU more. I think Utah is overrated, but then again I always think they are overrated. Oklahoma State is the wildcard. The Pokes beat Oregon at their place and get Texas Tech at home. Could they pull off another upset?

If I am putting odds on these four teams, I think I would give BYU the best odds of winning the conference after watching the first month of games.

SEC

I feel like this could be the year the SEC rises back to the top. I would not have said that before the season.

Georgia, for my money, is the best team in the country heading into October. The Dawgs look so business like in dispatching the lesser teams on their schedule.

Alabama looks better, Florida may very well be back, and Mississippi State is 4-0 if you are looking for a surprise. That doesn’t even count number one Texas, who remains a mystery in my book.

Texas clearly has talent, but Arch Manning still looks overrated. How he lead the comeback to beat Ohio State will always baffle me. The Horns have a brutal remaining schedule, so my undefeated prediction for the Longhorns seems unlikely. An adage that has served me well is “never trust Sark”. After the first month, despite their current position, that seems appropriate. 

Ole Miss and LSU are still in the hunt for a playoff berth. Ole Miss has a very porous defense. Despite losing to Ole Miss, I still like LSU more.

Tennessee looked better than I expected and Texas A&M is far worse.

The SEC continues to be a deep conference. Still, Georgia seems better than the rest.

Big Ten

Ohio State may very well be the most talented team in the country. Again. The only question is whether Arthur Smith will get conservative in big games. He did it in the second half of the Texas game, and it cost the Buckeyes big. Any other losses this regular season would be an upset in my book.

Who challenges Ohio State?

Oregon has an out of conference bad loss and has not looked great until last week versus USC. Then again, USC is the same as they ever were in the Lincoln Riley era. I will eviscerate Riley and give my opinion on what should happen at USC on my Wall2WallFootball podcast. Needless to say, the Trojans are not contenders.

Oregon could thrive, even with backup quarterback Dylan Raiola at the helm. I am just not sure about the Ducks. I feel like they can be outscored against good teams.

Indiana will probably be there, but they looked suspect against Northwestern. I predicted some regression for the Hoosiers. It looks like that could be correct.

Penn State is more a middle of the pack team, as is Michigan. Matt Campbell and Kyle Whittingham aren’t in the Big 12 anymore. Maybe Lincoln Riley can show them the way. Maybe not.

Northwestern, Nebraska, and Minnesota look better. Wisconsin may be a touch better. Meanwhile Washington has been disappointing, as has Illinois.

Two teams to keep an eye on are Iowa and UCLA. Kirk Ferencz is at it again. He plays it close to the vest, but his Hawks are finding ways to win. UCLA has the best new coach in the country in Bob Chesney. He has the Bruins believing in themselves and has already done more for UCLA than Lincoln Riley has done in five years at USC.

Notre Dame, shockingly, has not played any decent competition as of yet. I suspect they are playoff worthy, but how could you tell?

Final Analysis

This year it appears every week is different. So far not many trends have shown their face. One thing I stated in the beginning of the season was there would be a good chance to see a three loss team in the playoff. I still think that is the case. One thing I am sure of is we didn’t see nearly enough great games in the first month.

 The SEC and Big Ten will have a handful of teams beating up on each other. The SEC is really deep, which could lead to a lot of 2 or 3 loss teams. The Big Ten does have teams that could rise up and stun a favorite. Just ask Indiana about Northwestern. 

On the other hand, the ACC might as well be a wrap at this point. The Big 12 doesn’t have many big games, so the top teams should coast.

That is what I have learned to date, as college football prepares for its middle third of the season. We will see if anyone is haunted after October.

Now if you will excuse me, I have to finish my Fire Lincoln Riley sign.

Tweet of the Week

Call this one Last of the Mohicans. Last weekend of the year we are treated to Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer pitching their last games. These are two of the last remaining old school pitchers. Sad to see them go.

 

 

Scherzer threw almost seven innings on three days rest just so he could make one last home start.

 

 

The Weekly Shiny Penny

These SEC Shorts weekly segments are must watch. This week is an all timer.



A Penny For My Final Thoughts…

Some from NFL and some from MLB…

  •  I truly didn’t think the Steelers would win again until November. Then the Bengals bungled and lo and behold the Steelers are tied for first place. So are the Cleveland Browns. Yes, that was typed correctly.
  • It is official. Justin Herbert is a bum.
  • The Raiders are 3-0. Kirk Cousins LIKES THAT. I wouldn’t rule them out as a potential playoff team.
  • What in the world is wrong with Green Bay? Start with an overrated quarterback and a coach who may not make it to Halloween.
  • Watching Case Keenum play for Chicago makes me realize there are still a few quality veteran backup quarterbacks. He was fantastic for the most part.
  • Two NFC teams with Super Bowl aspirations seem really blah so far: Rams and Eagles.
  • JJ McCarthy was traded to the Giants. I respect when a team acknowledges a mistake. McCarthy was a big mistake.
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates finished 82-80. How bad has this franchise been? That is only the fifth winning record for the Pirates in 34 years.
  • The Phillies floundered around before finally backing into the playoffs on the last day of the season. This was their celebration.

 


Is it me or is it a little overboard for a veteran team who has been to the playoffs five straight years? Is it a bit nuts that the owner is partying with beer goggles on for a team that has clearly underachieved? I don’t get it. Then again, I don’t get the constant celebrations in the locker room for anything before a Pennant clincher.

  • The Mariners are the latest team to show great ownership. Mariners ownership forced manager Dan Wilson, a longtime Mariner, to announce his own firing. Classy.

 


Just my two cents…