By Tim Clark / / Column, Tim's Two Cents
Two

Lincoln Riley is in year five at USC, and the school may have a James Franklin problem on their hands.

His Trojans teams still look the same. The results are very similar. The play of the team is almost identical. The same issues keep rearing their ugly heads.

James Franklin’s Penn State teams would rip through their schedule until they played a top ten team. Then they would fall flat on their faces. Every time. The more Franklin tried to change things, the more they stayed the same. He rifled through different coordinators, but the results were the same.

At USC, Riley’s teams have two issues that have not changed in his five years. They play lousy on the road, often looking unprepared. The second issue is the defense just can’t gain much traction.

Another similarity is the contracts involved along with the insidious buyouts. In fairness, any big time coach now has an astronomical buyout attached to their contract. Riley’s buyout is really cost prohibitive to the school firing him. To pay Riley’s buyout, then potentially have to pay a buyout for another coach before even signing that coach to a new contract might be more than USC is willing to swallow.

Penn State finally swallowed last year.

Then there is the damage that could be done to what is a pretty talented roster and future recruiting class. Firing Riley could potentially blow up everything they have been building towards. GM Chad Bowden would have to work overtime to secure commitments and recommitments from current players.

At the end of the day, unless USC implodes this year, Riley is probably safe. This brings me back to James Franklin.

For years my Penn State brethren were convinced that would be the year the Nittany Lions would break through and win the big game and go to the playoffs. Two years ago they made it to the playoffs, but still never won the big game. That season they lost to Ohio State, Oregon, and Notre Dame. The best win may have been against an average USC team.

As the years passed by, the Penn State fans became increasingly fed up with Franklin’s inability to beat the big boys. It took an implosion last season to finally get rid of Big Game James, a nickname dubbed out of mockery.

Franklin did get 11 seasons at Penn State, but he at least littered his tenure with 10+ win seasons. Riley is only in year five. His record is 38-18 at USC. His predecessor Clay Helton, who fans were ready to Trojan Horse out of town long before he was fired, was 39-19. Riley is clearly a better coach, but much like Franklin, he can’t get over the hump.

Penn State fans had a million theories as to why Franklin couldn’t beat the heavyweights on his schedule, but it truly was a frustrating mystery. The same is true at USC with Riley. I know I can’t explain it clearly.

Riley’s teams look borderline incompetent on the road. Whether playing Oregon or Rutgers, Notre Dame or Maryland, Michigan or Minnesota, USC looks like an unprepared, under motivated team. The main crux of Riley’s issues at USC is a total lack of defense. Those defensive woes coupled with playing on the road have led Riley’s USC teams to mediocrity.

This year was supposed to finally be the over the hump season.

After last weekend’s tussle with hapless Rutgers on the road —USC squeaked out a win while giving up 35 points and being shoved all over the field— one has to question whether any hump will be climbed.

USC’s defense played brutally soft pass coverage, had no inclination of pressuring the quarterback and, if not for a pick six on a poorly thrown ball, would have been a complete zero.

Here is the thing. It is hard to explain why.

Riley came to USC with his friend Alex Grinch as his defensive coordinator. Grinch wasn’t good at Oklahoma, and he was even worse at USC. It took a year too long, but Riley fired Grinch and poached D’Anton Lynn from crosstown rival UCLA. Lynn had a stellar defense in Westwood and immediately improved the Trojans defense. Then things stagnated in year two under Lynn, where the defense continued to not be able to get stops to put games away. Lynn left for his alma mater Penn State, and Riley hired a defensive savant in Hall of Fame coach Gary Patterson. As head coach at TCU, Patterson almost always had a top 40 defense, often much higher.

So far this season at USC, Patterson’s defense has looked pedestrian, with the aforementioned soft coverages and lack of consistent pressure. The talent on the defense was always a problem, but through targeted recruiting has been upgraded with a slew of 4 and 5 star players. Players every other team in America wanted.

The other criticism of Riley has always been that he devises a run and shoot style offense that keeps his defense on the field too long. That just isn’t the case the last couple of years. Although the Trojans don’t huddle, their offense is far from a hurry up style. In addition, Riley continues to emphasize the run more and more. The Trojans actually run the ball more than they throw it for the first time in Riley’s tenure.

Still, the defense falls short. They are particularly egregious on the road.

This year the offensive line has fallen short as well. The Heisman hopeful senior quarterback looks off, despite USC replacing their two stud receivers from a year ago with a bevy of stud freshmen.

Riley has upgraded the defensive coaching staff.

USC killed it in recruiting, and continues to do so.

The Trojans emphasize a balanced attack.

Yet after the near disaster in Piscataway last Saturday, it feels like narratives about Riley rage on. It is certainly understandable.

This weekend Oregon comes to the Coliseum, and it sure feels like Riley needs a big win. His fanbase has considerable doubt, but most can’t pinpoint a real reason. Just simply that Riley can’t seem to get it done.

As a USC fan I got excited when he fired Alex Grinch. Surely that would fix this thing.

As a USC fan I am always excited to see the offensive weapons, especially this year’s freshmen.

As a USC fan I got excited by the hire of Chad Bowden and the subsequent huge uptick in recruiting.

As a USC fan I am excited when I see young guns like Luke Wafle, Jahkeem Stewart, Rodney Sermons, Rock Hill, and more on defense.

In year five this would surely be where all of that excitement is realized with a 9 or 10 win season even with a brutal schedule.

Then the team sort of muddled through three games against inferior opponents. It wasn’t enough to create panic, but it also didn’t generate a great deal of excitement.

Then the Rutgers game. I get that they had to fly across the country, but that was an epic fail despite the win. More importantly, it looked identical to road games over the past two seasons. Riley’s teams lost to Maryland and Minnesota on the road when they had far superior talent. They lost to Illinois, Michigan, and Washington on the road when they had those games in the palm of their hands. Then the defense reared its ugly head. They lost to Penn State two years ago at home when they should have won. Defense. All of them. Same disastrous recipe.

Rutgers on Saturday looked exactly like those games except they pulled out a victory.

No reasonable USC fan is feeling confident about this week’s game against a vulnerable Oregon team. Then games at Penn State and Indiana(both three time zones), at Wisconsin, and home versus Ohio State could be disasters.

At some point —and for me it was last weekend— you have to realize it just isn’t going to change.

I am on record as saying I hope it works out with Riley because I fear how far a coaching change could set the Trojans back. Then it struck me. Set them back from what?

I think Lincoln Riley has done everything to improve the team, both from a coaching standpoint and a roster standpoint. This column feels rambling which is appropriate. When I try to explain the USC situation to people I ramble for minutes on end and then say, “I can’t really put my finger on it, but it is clearly not working.”

I think as much as anything else it is personality. Lincoln Riley doesn’t have a big personality. He doesn’t seem like a rah rah guy. He doesn’t seem like a hard ass. And because of the mounting pressure, I think he coaches tight. He is constantly defensive about the program, to the point he doesn’t allow hardly any media access to practices.

Maybe more than anything, however, is the culture Riley has developed at USC just isn’t a winning culture. Need proof?

 


Is Riley even aware of this or is his nose permanently stuck in his mini play sheet? The juice boxes are embarrassing, especially only up 7 against lowly Rutgers. 

Something is just not clicking for Riley at USC, much like James Franklin’s big game performances at Penn State. Eventually you have to realize it just isn’t going to change.

I think a nine win season keeps Riley in place. Eight wins is questionable. If USC drops to seven or less wins, I don’t know how you continue to move forward with Riley. Jen Cohen may want to get her Rolodex handy.

As a huuuuuge Trojans fan, I hope Riley makes this column look like the ramblings of a pessimistic buffoon. Unfortunately there is no historical evidence —recent or past— that makes me think he will.

Tweet of the Week

This is so fitting of the Steelers Sunday. Yes, you are reading that graphic correctly. For the record, it was third and seven on the play before.

 


The Weekly Shiny Penny

The Pirates are going to fall short of the playoffs —surprise, surprise— but this play by first baseman Ryan O’Hearn certainly warrants the shiny penny.

 


A Penny For My Final Thoughts…

Some random thoughts…

  • I think it is fair to wonder if the Steelers will win another game before November. Check out my Wall2WallFootball podcast for a diatribe on the Steelers.
  • I saw a great stat: Sunday was the first time since 2001 that both the Browns and Guardians won games on the same day. Either the Guardians play poorly on Sundays or the Browns are the Browns. Nobody tell Todd Monken I said that.
  • I will say it again. Mike Tomlin is fantastic on TV. He is done coaching. He likes to be liked.
  •  A sneaky good game Saturday: West Virginia vs Oklahoma State. Rich Rod has the Mountaineers trending the right direction and OSU already has an upset of Oregon. Pecking order in the Big 12 on the line.
  • I saw Penn State had quite a few empty seats for Buffalo Saturday. Again, fans don’t want to pay increased ticket and parking prices for nosebleed seats to a game like that. Teams need to schedule better. Period.
  • The President’s Cup gets underway in a couple days for the two people excited to watch. A bunch of Ims, Kims, and Canadiens vs the usual suspects for America. It certainly seems like another flawed selection process for the Americans, but who really cares.
  • Last week of MLB regular season and the NL Wildcard seeding is up for grabs. As a neutral observer, I would love to see a Braves/Phillies best of three. In the AL, will all the playoff teams break .500?
  • The Pirates playing really good baseball after putting the,selves too far out of contention is the most Pirates thing they could do this season.
  • Paul Skenes thinks his fastball velocity was affected by the World Baseball Classic. Told you that is a stupid event. But ‘Merica and all that(insert eye roll).
Just my two cents…