By Tim Clark / / Baseball, Column, Tim's Two Cents
Two

As we get ready to celebrate the Fourth of July for the 250th time, baseball is racing in to the second half of the season.

Perfect.

Baseball, apple pie, and all that. Talking baseball sure beats the idiotic hot dog eating contest.

It is a great time to re-evaluate the season to date and who looks good to make a playoff run.

American League

The American League is a bona fide dumpster fire. There are four teams —Rays, Yankees, White Sox, Guardians—with winning records. Four. One team at .500, and the rest are losers. Yet, the rules say six teams must make the playoffs.

East

I still think the Yankees will win this division, but one should never doubt the Rays.

The Rays are a bit like Jason Vorhees. Even win you think you’ve buried them, they find new ways to come back. This year they have the highest on base percentage in the American League. The Rays also have above average pitching and are able to close out games.

Aaron Judge is having a down year by his standards. Still, the Yankees talent will allow them to pass the Rays to win the division. Cam Schlittler could very well win the Cy Young.

Of the other three teams in the division, I still think the Blue Jays will steal a wild card bid. Vlad Guerrero only has four home runs. It has started out as one of the worst World Series hangovers in quite some time. The Jays just lost six straight at home. I’m just saying, somebody has to make the playoffs.

The Orioles and Red Sox will most likely be quite active between now and the trade deadline a month from now trying to rebuild their rosters.

Central

The White Sox are a surprising first place team. Cleveland is used to being at the top of the standings. Neither team is dominant, certainly not on paper. Again, someone has to win the division.

The Royals are by far the worst team with a MVP candidate on the roster. Bobby Witt is locked in long term with Kansas City. One would think he may begin regretting that soon.

Detroit should be better, too. Kevin McGonigle is a rookie of the year candidate, and Tarik Skubal is two time reigning Cy Young winner. Instead, Skubal is on the trade block and the Tigers stink.

Minnesota has two good players in Byron Buxton and Joe Ryan. The Twins can certainly argue —by the numbers—they are still in the hunt for a playoff spot. I think it is more likely that Buxton becomes a Phillie and Ryan is a Cub by the end of July.

West

Nothing about Texas says playoffs. The pitching is adequate, but nothing else makes the Rangers smell like a playoff team.

Oakland has a fun offense to watch, especially playing home games in that band box in Sacramento. The pitching is putrid.

The Angels stink, and continue to make Kike Trout the most sympathetic figure in baseball.

That leaves the two teams that know how to win. Seattle. Houston. Before the most recent 9-3 stretch, many figured Houston would be looking to trade Yordan Alvarez and Christian Walker. Now that seems silly, as Houston is right in the playoff picture.

Seattle easily has the best roster in the division. The Mariners just haven’t put it together yet. If anyone were capable of pulling away in this division, Seattle would be that team.

Conclusion

I think talent will win out. The Yankees and Mariners will be the 1 and 2 seeds. Cleveland will be the third seed, followed by Tampa Bay, Houston, and Toronto.

Ultimately, the Yankees will go to the World Series.

National League

The National League has all the winning teams the American League is missing. Maybe this is an indictment of interleague play. Nine teams have winning records with one at .500 as of Monday morning. Some teams in the NL will have to figure out if they are truly contenders as the trade deadline approaches.

East

A few weeks ago I suggested the Braves had this division locked up. That was a bad suggestion. The yearly Braves injuries have surfaced, and the pitching staff is Chris Sale and a bunch of crossed fingers.

The Phillies are reeling the Braves in —that would have worked so much better if it was the Marlins— and will most likely win the division again. The Phillies have some warts, but they find ways to win games rather than finding ways to lose. I would assume the Phillies will be active at the trade deadline or even before. I would not be shocked if they make a play for Byron Buxton. Adding a pitcher is probably in the cards as well.

Two teams that are young and up and coming are the Marlins and Nationals. The Marlins have some solid bats but not much pop. Starting pitching has been good. The Nats have base stealers and bashers. Pitching depth is lacking in Washington. Still, it’s hard to see these two as sellers this year at the deadline.

The Mets should be in the American League, where dumpster fires go to rage on. The manager is gone, the players are not greatly invested, and the GM has to be next on the chopping block. How bad are the Mets? This was last night. Enjoy.

 

 

Central

Milwaukee would be the best team in baseball if not for the Dodgers. Milwaukee would have the best run differential, by far, if not for the Dodgers. The Brewers will win this division. Jacob Misiorowski and Kyle Harrison are a potent 1-2 punch in the rotation. Misiorowski will win the Cy Young. The Brewers don’t hit home runs, but they score plenty. Could this be the year the Brewers get to the World Series?

The Cubs don’t impress me, but here they are flush in the middle of the wildcard race. They have been the streakiest team in baseball. The Cubs will likely be active at the deadline to fill in some of those gaps.

St. Louis is another team that doesn’t impress me. Yet, the Cards win more than they lose despite what my eyes tell me.

Pittsburgh is easily the most frustrating team in baseball. The Bucs improved the offense and are scoring in bunches. This, despite a couple debilitating injuries. O’Neil Cruz was actually having the type of year people have been waiting to see. Of all things, the pitching has let them down. The starters don’t pitch enough innings, exposing that putrid bullpen. Gregory Soto can not be your closer. The defense is also abysmal.

The Reds just haven’t been able to gain traction. They have so,e good players and a great manager, but the losing outweighs the winning.

West

The Dodgers signed good player after good player. Their payroll is through the roof —insert salary cap joke here. Oddly enough the Dodgers are really good. I am glad. They are the poster child for why baseball needs a salary cap. Heck, even their owner knows that. Oh, yea, they will win the division going away.

The Padres have scuffled all year. Manny Machado is hitting .188, Fernando Tatis only has 3 home runs, and Jackson Merrill and Xander Bogaerts are both under .230. They don’t have enough starting pitching. On the positive side, Mason Miller is the best closer in baseball. All run at bad stuff, yet the Padres are four games over .500. Things should go better in the second half.

Arizona is hanging on by a thread, but I don’t think that will last.

The Giants stink, and the Rockies stink times two.

Conclusion

This could look like checkers in the second half, with teams jumping other teams in the standings.

The Dodgers and Brewers will be the 1 and 2 seeds. I think the Phillies will end up at three, vaulting the Braves. Atlanta will be 4, the Padres 5, and Chicago 6.

I will, once again, be rooting hard for the Brewers. There too two pitchers will be hard to deal with in a playoff series. Unfortunately my theme is going with the talent, so I think the Dodgers go back to the World Series.

Mid Season World Series Prediction

Dodgers over Yankees in the “See we’ve been telling you a salary cap is necessary” World Series.

Tweet of the Week

I hate to agree with a former Yankee, but this is spot on. Too many strikeouts.

 


The Weekly Shiny Penny

The Pirates need as many young guys to turn out good as possible. This kid —only 22— has a shot. Tremendous power.

 


A Penny For My Final Thoughts…

Some random thoughts…

  • Nick Saban wrote a character letter in support of Terrion Arnold, who was allowed to post a million dollar bond while awaiting his trial. As of now, Arnold has taken the lead for dumbest athlete.
  • All quiet(for the most part) on the Penguins offseason front. Kyle Dubas looking for that magic wand to walk the tightrope between rebuild and win now.
  • If you wondered how professional leagues view gambling, not only did the NFL deny Brendan Sorsby entry via the supplemental draft but the Canadian Football League also slammed the door in his face.
  • Scottie Scheffler just can’t get back in the winner’s circle. He lost yesterday on the first playoff hole to Victor Hovland. His putter just hasn’t been good enough this year.
  • How far has baseball fallen? NBC chose to stick with golf rather than switch over to their Sunday night baseball game.
Just my two cents…