By Tim Clark / / Column, Tim's Two Cents
Two

Memorial Day is the unofficial start to summer.

The temperatures start to heat up and so do the pennant races in Major League Baseball.

Memorial Day also means one third of the season is gone. It seems like an appropriate time to analyze things on the diamond. Which teams could rise? Which teams could fall? While we are at it, let’s look at some player stats, trends, and new rules.

AL East

Tampa is surprising, yet they aren’t. The Rays don’t hit many home runs, don’t strike many opponent hitters out, and are substandard fielders. Normally, I would suggest the Rays will fall back, but it is the Rays. They have a history of finding ways to win.

The Yankees are big boppers. They are riding The bats of Cody Bellinger, Ben Rice, and Bronx legend Aaron Judge. The pitching has been outstanding, and now the Yanks get Gerrit Cole back.

If Toronto can get healthy, the Jays can get back into the race in the AL East. When healthy the pieces are all there, and this team knows the way to the World Series.

Baltimore stinks again. A lot of young talent being wasted.

Clearly the manager wasn’t the biggest issue in Boston.

Risers and Fallers

I think a fully healthy Blue Jays team is a playoff team. Toronto should climb out of the hole they —and injuries— dug for themselves.

I think Tampa backslides a bit. They can’t keep up a 22-5 pace. As usual, I look at the roster and wonder how they win so consistently. The best record in baseball while having one of the worst defenses in baseball. Shake it all up, and I think Tampa Bay loses out to the Yankees in the AL East but still makes the playoffs.

AL Central

Al Davis would love the Cleveland Guardians. Just win, baby. That is exactly what Cleveland typically does, ala Tampa Bay. They win with less. Currently, the Guardians are pulling away from the rest of the division. Defense and pitching is carrying the day for Cleveland.

The Chicago White Sox lost 324 games over the past three seasons. Their positive start was desperately needed.

The Twins don’t do anything particularly well, and a team managed by Derek Shelton is doomed.

Bobby Witt has to be scratching his head over signing a long term deal in Kansas City. The rules say Witt may only be put in the lineup once. That is a problem for KC because the rest of the lineup is anemic.

Detroit is easily the biggest disappointment in the American League. A pitching staff of Tarik Skubal, Framber Valdez, Jack Flaherty, and Casey Mize was supposed to be dominant. Instead Skubal is hurt and on the trade block, Mize has been fine, and Flaherty and Valdez have been rotten.

Risers and Fallers

The Tigers just have to get better based on their roster. Kevin McGonigle may win rookie of the year and the pitching has to get better. If Skubal does indeed get traded, all bets are off.

The White Sox still stink, they just haven’t figured it out yet. They will eventually plummet down the standings.

AL West

The AL West is putrid. The A’s lead for now and do have some boppers in that lineup. The problem is they don’t have enough. Brent Rooker won’t hit .199 all year, but they need help. The starting pitching is playing above where it truly is, and the bullpen is not good. I’d love to see the A’s make the playoffs. Who doesn’t want to see playoff baseball in —checks notes— Sacremento.

For Seattle, players they are counting on are not living up to expectations. To wit, Cal Raleigh is hitting .161. The pitching has been pretty good, minus Luis Castillo. Luckily the Mariners are in an awful division.

Texas stinks.

Houston is going to blow it all up and start fresh.

The Angels. Poor, poor Mike Trout.

Risers and Fallers

This one is easy. The A’s will fade, while the Mariners will rise enough to win this downtrodden division.

NL East

The Braves have been a machine most of the year, and that is with Austin Riley and Ronald Acuna performing well below the bar. The Braves pitching has been elite. One wonders if some of the guys in the rotation will keep it up all season. This will be a tough team to catch.

The Nationals are coming. They have an ultra young roster, and will only get better.

The Phillies were on the rise, sweeping the Pirates to get above .500. Then they fell right back down. Hovering around .500 won’t get it done. Harper is hitting, Schwarber is bombing, and Brandon Marsh is a pleasant surprise. If your name is Christopher Sanchez or Zach Wheeler, you have been spectacular on the mound. Everyone else has been marginally miserable.

Miami has some good players, especially in the middle of the diamond. They just don’t have enough good players.

The Mets are a three ring circus. They don’t have an offensive player with a WAR over 0.5. The starting pitching has been spotty at best. The closer has an ERA over 6. Like I said, a three ring circus.

Risers and Fallers

The Phillies are eventually going to find some consistency and grab a playoff berth.

The only way the Braves fall is through injuries, and they are due to have some luck with injuries.

NL Central

Milwaukee is the Tampa Bay of the National League. They have fought through a lot of early injuries, and are still winning big. Jacob Miseroski is a Cy Young front runner. The back end of the bullpen hasn’t clicked yet. It is becoming clear that you shouldn’t sleep on the Brewers. Ever.

Jordan Walker is becoming a star in St. Louis, while JJ Weatherholt is close behind. The Cardinals pitching is suspect, making their current pace hard to sustain.

The Cubs are on a nine game bender, which I have been waiting for. There is nothing impressive about this team, specifically the pitching.

The Reds have Terry Francona steering the ship, which is usually good for a few wins. Elly DeLa Cruz is a star, but needs much more help. Chase Burns is an ace. There just isn’t enough other pieces.

For the Pirates it is simple. They need a better bullpen and to play better defense. The starters have been excellent, and Paul Skenes isn’t even their best pitcher. That title belongs to Braxton Ashcraft. The offense is better, but still has some black holes like Henry Davis, Marcel Ozuna, and Jared Triolo. Pirates fans should cross their fingers and hope the two rookies called up last week turn into legitimate hitters.

Risers and Fallers

I think eventually the Cardinals bottom will fall out, causing them to sink to the bottom of the division.

Any team in this division could take off. I actually think the Pirates have the best chance of rising in the standings. That starting pitching will keep them in most games, and it will get better with the return of Jared Jones.

NL West

The Dodgers are certainly the class of baseball, as well they should be. Enough said.

The Padres are winning despite a mediocre offense and zero production from Fernando Tatis. The pitching is solid and Mason Miller is the best closer in the business.

Arizona just keeps plugging along. They should have enough to stay relevant.

San Francisco stinks.

Colorado stinks worse.

Risers and Fallers

I am not sure I see any risers or fallers here. I feel like three months from now the standings will look very similar.

Odds and Ends

  • Bobby Witt and Mike Trout will vie for best player on a bad team.
  • I like that Don Kelly is sticking up for the Pirates by getting tossed on the reg. The umpires still generally stink.
  • Konnor Griffin will win the NL Rookie of the Year.
  • Kevin McGonigle will win AL Rookie of the year.
  • Aaron Judge and Matt Olson will win the MVP’s.
  • The NL Cy Young race should be intense. Right now there are at least five pitchers deserving of consideration. If I had to pick right now, I would choose Christopher Sanchez of the Phillies.
  • The AL Cy Young is looking like Cam Schittler right now.

New Rule

The ABS challenge system has been in place since opening day. Here are the numbers to date. Click the link to look at player and umpire stats.

 


My problem with the ABS system is that the umpires still miss a lot of calls. Early on I thought it proved they were getting more right than I thought. I no longer feel that is the case.

With only two challenges, teams seem hesitant to challenge calls —even calls that appear obvious— early in the game. I suggested on my podcast that they give each team more challenges. I have a new idea. When you win a challenge, your team earns an extra challenge. No team can have more than four challenges at any given time.

The umpires are still missing too many calls, and many of them are too arrogant to acknowledge that fact. Earned extra challenges may combat that. It is such a quick process that it won’t hold up the game for any length of time. Or maybe MLB should just go to straight automated strike zones.

I do like that baseball has instituted rules that alleviate some of their bigger problems. The pitch clock is a huge success, and the ABS Challenge System has helped, to some degree, with poor ball/strike umpiring.

Who Wins?

I certainly would like to take back my Mets World Series pick. I think I had a fever of 104 that day.

Since I refuse to pick the Dodgers to win it again, I think I am going to predict Atlanta over the Yankees in the World Series. You are welcome Braves fans. Jinxes are for kids.

Tweet of the Week

When Paul Skenes gave up a leadoff home run in his last start, cameras were focused on his girlfriend, Livvy Dunne, in the stands.

 

My thoughts exactly, Livvy.

The Weekly Shiny Penny

Sunday, Pirates rookie Esmerlyn Valdez hit a home run. It was his first hit as a major league player, so clearly he would want the ball back. The Pirates bullpen negotiated with the kid who caught the ball and eventually reached a deal. That wasn’t the best part. When the kid was interviewed by Peacock, he said this.

 

Pirates, Pelicans. After the last 45 years of Pirates futility that seems about right. Where is Rodney Dangerfield when you need him? Or Livvy Dunne.

A Penny For My Final Thoughts…

Some random thoughts…

  • Every time Bryson DeChambeau speaks he becomes more unlikable.
  • Are the Knicks that good, or is the NBA that bad? I think you know my answer.
  • James Harden: 6 teams, 6 failures.
  • Are you telling me you wouldn’t enjoy Torts in the Stanley Cup Finals?
  • Carolina having way more trouble putting the Canadiens away than I thought.
  • NHL overtime crowds are actually quieter than you think. It is hard to yell with your heart in your throat.
  • This 24 team playoff in college football is going to happen isn’t it?
  • Brewers pitcher Jacob Miserowski hit 100 mph 57 times in his outing yesterday. This kid is the new must see pitcher in baseball right now.
  • The first no hitter in two seasons was a three pitcher combined no hitter by Houston. Of course it was.
  • The Big Ten may be dominating football and basketball right now, but they get no respect in baseball. Despite an RPI of 9, USC was not selected to host a regional. Purdue certainly seemed worthy of a bid, but was left out of the bracket on Monday afternoon.
Just my two cents…