By Tim Clark / / College, Football, Column, Tim's Two Cents
Two

Ranking football teams in September is a fool’s errand. We truly don’t know much about the teams, especially those teams that load up on the Valdosta States of the world. The calendar has turned to October, and we have plenty of anecdotal evidence to make judgements on teams. A lot will still happen to shape this season, but it seems fair to discuss some of the things we have learned thus far.

The first thing I have learned is that I am in a slump with my predictions. My baseball predictions are on the ropes, and my college football picks are at the edge of the cliff. My cat Parker is picking games ten times better than me, and my partner in crime —Two Cent Cracked Crystal Ball— is ghosting me. God forbid he take any heat for our picks.

Penn State and Texas were definitely poor choices to make the CFP Championship Game. On paper it seemed logical, but as we know they don’t play games on paper. And as it turns out, the experts who rank players didn’t give very expert advice.

Lesson 1

Penn State is a mess. Losing to an 0-4 UCLA team that had not held a lead up until this game, is pretty much rock bottom. The team looked ill prepared and the interim coaches at UCLA outcoached James Franklin and crew by a large distance. If you are a Penn State fan it was wholly unacceptable. The alleged best offensive line in the Big Ten is not even close to that level. Paying Jim Knowles 3 million dollars to coach defense looks like a colossal waste of money. And Drew Allar is neither elite nor being given a decent set of plays to run that accentuate his strengths.

It certainly fires up the old Bunsen burner under head coach James Franklin’s seat. For all those in Nittany Nation calling for Franklin’s firing, forget it. Unless he decides to step down and seek a new school, Franklin isn’t going anywhere. I have never been a fan of Franklin, finding him to be more used car salesman than football coach. However, he just made the semifinals of the playoffs. We all know he doesn’t win the big games, and Saturday was easily the worst loss for Penn State in decades. His nervous, ultra conservative game plans are spilling into every game now. He stuck his foot in his mouth by proclaiming this to be the best personnel he’s had since arriving in State College. He is currently laying a big, fat egg with his “great” personnel. But they just aren’t going to fire a coach who wins 10 or 11 games every year, even if he ends up with only 8 or 9 this year. The fans still pack Beaver Stadium, and there are 56 million other reasons they won’t terminate Franklin. The assistant coaches may not be treated the same way.

As for Penn State’s season, at Iowa, at Michigan State, Indiana, Nebraska, and obviously at Ohio State could all go the wrong way. Too many losses and a coach in the eye of the fan storm could result in recruiting trouble. Franklin will have to open things up. Otherwise, Andy Kotelnicki will get scapegoated, the losses may pile up, and the valley will be far, far from happy.

Lesson 2

Meanwhile in Austin, the Arch Manning era is currently in shambles. Manning is simply not good. There isn’t any way to sugarcoat that fact. He stinks. His offensive line is certainly complicit in the current state of affairs. I assume Steve Sarkisian has his AA sponsor on speed dial.

Manning is easy to dislike. He stood over a Sam Houston State player after scoring a touchdown. That is akin to one of the talented Mannings pimping a touchdown against a junior high team. Then he gets the police escort off the field. Clearly this kid has been put on a pedestal because of his last name. He appears spoiled and talentless. Now we know why Sark didn’t bench Quin Ewers last year.

Texas has more problems than just Manning, and it brings the thought back to my mind that Sarkisian has never had great success. At Texas he has an unlimited NIL budget, so acquiring talent should never be a problem. Thus, his coaching may get called in to question. Falling in love with Manning may prove to be Sarkisian’s biggest mistake.

Texas still has Vanderbilt and Texas A&M at home, Oklahoma next week in the Red River Shootout, and a trip to play Georgia between the hedges. Making the playoffs seems like a pretty far fetched idea. Four losses seems like a reasonable outcome for the Longhorns’s season.

Lesson 3

Parity has arrived in college football, particularly in the SEC.

 Ole Miss is in pretty good position, but still have trips to Georgia and Oklahoma while still hosting South Carolina and Florida. Plus the rivalry game with a much improved Mississippi State. Texas A&M is in great position now, but still has matchups with Texas, South Carolina, Missouri, LSU, and Florida. Alabama righted the ship, but still must play Tennessee, Oklahoma, Missouri, South Carolina, LSU, and Auburn. You get the point. These teams are all similar and will most likely beat on each other. This will be the year we see a three losses seems playoff team.

Lesson 4

I learned that I have no idea who will win the Big 12. I still like my preseason pick of Arizona State, but there are 11 teams with zero or one loss in conference right now. I will save you the pain of reading a long dissertation and just say any of those 11 teams can beat any of the others on any given Saturday(or Friday night).

Lesson 5

I learned that I don’t know who will play Miami in the ACC Championship, but I think Virginia has a real chance to go 11-1, while Georgia Tech could also win 10 or 11 games.

Lesson 6

I learned there is a fairly big gap between Ohio State, Oregon, Miami and everyone else. There are other undefeated teams  but they are not on the same talent level as those three teams.

Tim’s Top Ten

With that said, here is my first Two Cent Top Ten.

  1. Ohio State- The Buckeyes have not given up more than 9 points in a game so far. What a great way to allow a freshman quarterback to ease his way in to the college game. They face a tougher test this week at Illinois. Ohio State pays, but they have the most talent. They are quickly becoming WR U.
  2. Miami- A team full of “dudes”. This looks like vintage  “The U” talent. Big, strong, and fast, plus the Canes have a veteran quarterback that has seen a playoff run. The freshmen are standing out, especially wide receiver Malachi Toney who seems to have jet straps strapped to his back. My concern is head coach Mario Cristobal will Mario Cristobal a game they should win easily. If he stays out of the way, the Canes will have 7 controlled scrimmages to end the season.
  3. Oregon- The Ducks have the most impressive win of the season, beating Penn State in a White Out game. Though a little of the shine is off that victory with Penn State’s debacle at UCLA. Oregon plays a ton of freshmen and exemplify their coach’s take no prisoner attitude. Oregon’s schedule is not that bad, so expect to see the Ducks in Indy for the Big Ten Championship.
  4. Oklahoma- I didn’t believe that John Mateer would make a big difference for Oklahoma. I was wrong, but with Mateer out a month with a hand injury the Sooners bubble could burst.
  5. Mississippi- The Lane Teain is rolling again. Kiffin has not one, but two good quarterbacks. Playing the hot hand may be the approach. If Kiffin can get his Rebels to pull off an upset at Georgia he could accomplish two things. He could lead his team to a top three ranking and put Georgia on the bubble for a playoff berth.
  6. Texas A&M- The Aggies are the team that is finding a way each week. Far from dominant, the Aggies schedule has some potential potholes but isn’t terrifying. The oil barons cash may finally get them something this year.
  7. Alabama- After being embarrassed at Florida State, the Tide has looked great. QB Ty Simpson has been far better than I thought he would play. The schedule is brutal, so Alabama will have to continue to be at the top of their game.
  8. Indiana- The Hoosiers, by all rights, should have lost at Iowa. If they lose at Oregon this week and later at Penn State, will a blowout home win over Illinois be enough to get them back to the playoffs?
  9. Texas Tech- So far it has been money well spent, as the Red Raiders spent big bucks on NIL. A dominant win at Utah announced the Red Raiders were contenders for the Big 12 this year.
  10. Notre Dame- Yes, I know the Irish have two losses. Two losses by 4 points have Notre Dame with their backs against the wall. Having said that, watching the Irish the last few weeks tells me they are one of the ten best teams in the country.

Lessons have been learned, and now a more accurate outlook can be predicted. That outlook no longer includes Penn State and Texas.

What about the NFL?

  • No team is dominant.
  • The Eagles could have a real problem on their hands in diva wideout AJ Brown.
  • Parity is real.
  • Pittsburgh may win the AFC North by default.
  • The Buccaneers should always wear the creamsicle uniforms. They are glorious.

Tweet of the Week

Subtle and hilarious.

 


The Weekly Shiny Penny

I try to keep this segment to sports, but I couldn’t help myself. The news just came out that the greatest rock band ever is going to go back on tour. It will be bittersweet without Neil Peart, but it will be so good to hear those songs being played again. This is definitely Shiny Penny worthy.

 

 

A Penny For My Final Thought…

The Phillies are at it again.

Down 2-0 to the Dodgers and heading to LA for games 3 and 4. It doesn’t look good. The same thing plagues the Phillies as it does every year in the playoffs. The biggest bats go quiet and the bullpen is porous.

Bryce Harper was paid a gazillion dollars to perform in the big moments. He hasn’t been terrible by any stretch, but he also hasn’t been great either. Kyle Schwarber put this team on his back at times this year. The last two seasons in the playoffs Schwarber is 2 for 23 with just one home run.

Of course the team the Phillies are losing to spent more money than the monopoly guy. LA bought a great roster, especially on offense. They will need that offense with a questionable bullpen.

 Milwaukee is trying to advance and knock out their first big market opponent. They have been mashing in Milwaukee. If the Brewers win it would be a classic “Haves vs Have Nots” matchup with either the Dodgers or Phillies.

The Yankees are also in big trouble. Needless to say their pitching is being crushed. The Blue Jays have hit 8 home runs in the first two games of the series.

Seattle lost the game Troy Melton started for Detroit, and they won the game Tarik Skubal started. Go figure. 

I still generally hate the wildcard thing. It seems silly that Cleveland won the division then got knocked out of the playoffs by the team they lost to in the division race. Why should the Brewers have to beat the Cubs again. They were victorious in winning the division over the Cubs, but apparently that isn’t good enough.

That being said, playoff baseball is so much fun to watch. Every pitch is meaningful, the players are super into it, and the crowds are electric.

Maybe someday before I am senile I will get to see the Pirates in the playoffs again. Senility seems more likely to win that race against Bob Nutting.

Just my two cents…