By Tim Clark / / Baseball, Column, Tim's Two Cents
Two

Every team will play its 81st game some time this week. What is the old adage? Time flies when you are having fun…or watching the Pirates Well, something to that effect.

That means it is time for my annual midseason review. Let’s discuss surprises, disappointments, and recalibrate predictions.

American League

The best team in baseball and the biggest surprise in baseball resides in the once downtrodden American League Central division.

The Detroit Tigers are riding the power of Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter, and Spencer Torkelson and the left arm of Tarik Skubal. If you are an analytics nerd —and I say that affectionately— the best position player on the roster is the suddenly resurrected Javier Baez. You read that right, the guy who hit .184 a year ago and seemed a likely candidate to be released this spring is having a banner year.

Nothing else about the Tigers roars in your face. They are a bunch of guys only ardent baseball fans recognize, yet they are winning big. The Tigers have the best record in baseball and have the division on lockdown.

Something tells me the Tigers will backslide, at least a bit. They are a shoo-in for the playoffs and will have to hold off the Yankees for the top seed.

Speaking of the Yankees, the Pinstripers really are the Bronx Bombers this year. Led by MVP to be Aaron Judge, only the Dodgers have more home runs in all of baseball. That instant offense wins a lot of games, but the Yankees have a surprising top five pitching staff. Just like I expect the Tigers to backslide, I expect the Yankees pitching to do the same. As always, expect the Yankees to add at the trade deadline.

Out west, Houston has predictably overcome a slow start to take control of a weak division. Meanwhile Seattle is trying to hang in and catcher Cal Raliegh is on pace to break the American League single season home run record. He would shatter the record of 48 for most home runs for a catcher. He currently sits at 32.

Astros shortstop Jeremy Pena is an absolute star, Josh Hader has returned to vintage Josh Hader, and Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown may be the best 1-2 punch in any rotation. Brown has put himself squarely in the Cy Young discussion. This isn’t the Astros lineup we are used to, but paired with the pitching it should be enough to hold off Home Run Cal and the Mariners. Raliegh is quite a story, and if not for Aaron Judge he may be the front runner for MVP.

The biggest disappointment in the American League continues to be Baltimore. On top of their abysmal performance, the Orioles are now dealing with a plethora of injuries. Three pitchers in the Orioles rotation have ERA’s over 5. Only three teams in all of baseball have a worse team ERA. Baltimore ownership claimed money wasn’t an object. Maybe nobody told GM Mike Elias. His biggest move this year was firing manager —and scapegoat— Brandon Hyde. Disappointing is the least you can say about a team with all those promising young players.

One last team to take note of in the American League. I buried Tampa Bay a month ago, but here they are back from the dead. Some returning players mixed with the usual new recruits, and Tampa keeps chugging along. It truly is remarkable that a small market team that spends little and draws even less just keeps winning.

Playoff Predictions(aka my new guesses):

  1. Yankees
  2. Tigers
  3. Astros
  4. Rays
  5. Guardians
  6. Mariners

By October it will be the Yankees over the Tigers, and boy do I hope I am wrong.

National League

While the Phillies and Mets go toe to toe in the National League East, the other two divisions have four teams each with winning records. That will make for a more interesting playoff push than I originally thought. Let that be a lesson for all. Let the season breathe a bit before making pinheaded proclamations.

The best team that money can buy is not so ironically the best team in the National League. The Los Angeles Dodgers lineup is stacked from top to bottom. Michael Conforto is the only flaw in the starting nine. The pitching, on the other hand, is in shambles. Most of the staff is residing on the disabled list, including four starters. All four —Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell, Roki Sasaki, and Tony Gonsolin— are on the 60 day IL. Fortunately for Dodgers fans, they score enough runs to overcome the pitching issues.

Because baseball is stupid, we only get to see the Dodgers and Padres play six more times.

 

 

 The Padres are one of three teams trying to keep the Dodgers within reach. Quite frankly, the Padres have not truly clicked offensively and the pitching has been hit or miss. If they can put it all together, San Diego could make it interesting in the West.

The San Francisco Giants added the big bat —Rafael Devers— the lineup needed. The lineup was, quite frankly, below average. With the addition of Devers it becomes average. With the starting pitching the Giants usually get, average may be enough to make the playoffs.

The Diamondbacks have been disappointing, and with the loss off stud pitcher Corbin Burnes it probably will spell doom for the D’Backs.

The most pleasant surprise in the National League is probably the Central Division. All teams not named Pittsburgh, that is. More on the pitiful Pirates in my Final Thought.

The Cubs are going to win the division. Chicago has two bona fide stars in Pete Crow-Armstrong and Kyle Tucker. They lead an offense that is bashing bombs at a high rate. That is a good thing because the starting pitching is questionable at best. Look for the Cubs to burn the phone lines looking for at least one more starter before the trade deadline. Seven pitchers have a save in the truest example of a bullpen by committee. Possibly the biggest asset for the Cubs is manager Craig Counsell. Counsell is great at maximizing mediocre rosters.

After years of being the National League version of the Rays —with a little more spending— nobody should be surprised that Milwaukee is hanging with the Cubs. Some of the faces change, but the winning just keeps happening. Plus, the Brewers have my most favorite hat logo.

After seeing St. Louis play the Pirates earlier this year, I am stunned the Cardinals are above .500. I just can’t see them hanging in for the entire season. They do have solid, if not spectacular, numbers across the board. 

Cincinnati was bound to be better with Terry Francona as manager. Elly DeLa Cruz is what the Pirates hoped O’Neil Cruz would become. Power and speed to die for. Hunter Greene is on the IL, but when healthy is a star waiting to happen on the mound.

Finally the head to head battle that has been ongoing all season in the National League East. The Mets are star struck. Francisco Lindor is a star. Juan Soto is a star. Pete Alonso is a star. And Brandon Nimmo is sort of like the fourth Musketeer. The rest of the roster…eh. The pitching has been lights out; the best in baseball. It is actually fair to say the Mets should have a better record with pitching that good.

The Phillies lineup has come alive of late. Alec Bohm is no longer on the tip of every Phillies fans’ acid tongue. Oddly, Kyle Schwarber is the only player with double digit home runs at 24. Yet, the Phils are still potent most nights. Once again, the biggest question for the Phillies offense is can they get and keep Bryce Harper healthy.

The Phillies starters are generally fantastic. Wheeler, Luzardo —minus two horrific starts— Suarez, and Sanchez have been great. Will Aaron Nola ever be vintage Aaron Nola again? Not to worry, because top prospect forever Mick Abel is finally in Philly and has been solid. The bullpen, as it is every single season, will be the sore spot. With Jose Alvarado suspended, there really isn’t any pitcher coming out of the pen the Phillies 100% trust. Maybe the Phillies should call Pittsburgh to inquire about David Bednar.

The reason the Phillies are good is their “balls to the wall” approach to the game. I am sure you’ve seen it, but watch this example one more time.

 

Straight out of the script of the iconic baseball movie Major League. That is just how the Phillies play.

The biggest disappointment in the National League is clearly the Atlanta Braves. The Braves were going to bounce back after their injury woes a year ago. I, for one, was certain of that fact. So far that is just another pinheaded prediction on my part. The numbers suggest the Braves will be better, especially with Ronald Acuna getting rolling after starting the season on IL. Have they dug the hole too deep to fully recover?

The National League is also home to three horrific teams. The Rockies are on pace for under 40 wins, and that is after a 5-5 hot streak. The Marlins don’t have one recognizable player in their lineup. The Pirates…well, again, more on them in my Final Thought.

Playoff Predictions(aka more new guesses):

  1. Mets
  2. Dodgers
  3. Cubs
  4. Phillies
  5. Padres
  6. Brewers

While the October leaves are changing, it will be the Mets over the Dodgers.

If my stellar predictive skills continue you won’t have to worry. However, if this dart hits the bullseye, all the baseball higher ups will need a change of underwear because it will be another “Subway Series”.

Oh, and for the record, it would be Mets over Yankees.

Halfway home in baseball usually gives us a decent look at where things are headed. The trade deadline looms in a month, and sometimes teams actually make moves that matter. Moves that change the trajectory of a season.

For now, that is how I see things as we clear the halfway hurdle and head down the backside. If you hate big market teams, and the New York teams specifically, hope for me to be wrong yet again. Recent history suggests you should be safe.

Two Cent Takes

College Baseball

~College baseball, and the World Series in particular, was a really fun watch this year. It was soured a bit by Angel Campos  and umpire fired by MLB and hired by —you guessed it— the NCAA throwing out the Coastal Carolina manager and first base coach in the first inning of the last game. Here is the aftermath and one fantastic quote.

 

~LSU is becoming a baseball juggernaut, continuing their and the SEC’s dominance in Omaha.

 NHL

~Speaking of missed predictions, Florida took out my Canadian team prediction by winning their second straight Stanley Cup. The Panthers beat Edmonton for the second straight year as well. Florida shows no signs of slowing down. No income tax and a coach players love to play for make the Panthers a desirable team for stars. Meanwhile, Edmonton now waits to see if Connor McDavid thinks a new uniform may change his Stanley Cup chances.

~Ratings were down for what was a really good NHL playoffs. It has me wondering if hockey is ever going to fully compete with the other sports. The season is far too long, but that is true for all sports. But hockey in June does seem strange. Condensing the season certainly seems worth a try.

NBA

~OKC deserved to win the NBA Championship. 68 wins in the regular season is no small feat. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is impressive on and off the court. Good for Oklahoma City, but thank God it is over.

~The NBA product is so bad right now.

~Shout out to TJ McConnell. He plays old school basketball and kept Indiana in game seven as long as he could.

~The NBA Draft takes place Wednesday and Thursday. Just what we need, two days worth of over analysis of every player selected.

~The 76ers choose third, and a trade down isn’t out of the question. If no trade occurs, VJ Edgecombe appears to be the choice. Ace Bailey has come across as a punk and refused to work out for Philly. Bailey never looked invested at Rutgers, which is a giant red flag. Why add trouble?

Golf

~What Tommy Fleetwood did on Sunday can only be described as a gargantuan choke job. I felt awful for him. Great player but no PGA wins. It clearly got to him on Sunday.

~Keegan Bradley took advantage of Fleetwood’s gag, causing much conversation about whether he should remain captain of the U.S. Ryder Cup team or be a playing member of the team. It is a tough call. I think he will be a great captain, but I would love to see that energy ON the team. The U.S. team will be the underdog, so it could use the best players being on the team. Calling Brooks Koepka.

ESPN

~The Worldwide Leader in Sports is a disaster right now. The network is being taken over by loudmouth clowns. Pat McAfee and his frat boys have got a firm grip on ESPN, almost defying the network to discipline them. The other loudmouth that dominates not only the ESPN airwaves, but all airwaves is Steven A. Smith. Suddenly Smith is not only a sports expert but a political expert. His scream at the screen methodology is well past its expiration date. Hey, maybe he should run for president. I’m sure he thinks he is qualified.

The Weekly Shiny Penny

Sometimes the soul just needs a few bloopers to lighten the load of every day life. Our Pennsylvania ball clubs were kind enough to oblige over the weekend. Enjoy a few laughs from these Keystone Cops.

 

That one courtesy of the Phillies, and now to the western side of the state.

 

 

 


A Penny For My Final Thought…

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 32-48. With a loss tonight they will officially be on pace for 98 losses. Even in a nice win last night where a guy goes 5-5(Nick Gonzalez) the team struck out a season high 16 times.

To quote The Grinch, “Stink, stank, stunk.”

And not just on the field, but off the field as well.  Look at this pictorial of off field disasters this year ranging from misspelled star names to “Brick-gate” to falling out of the stands to trying to attack a fan.

 

Ain’t it grand?

There is good to talk about. The starting pitching has been fantastic, led by Cy Young candidate Paul Skenes. What has that got the team?

The Pirates waste quality starts like I waste good drives on the golf course.

Oh, and that does it for the good.

This is the worst Pirates offense I can ever remember. The best hitter on the team is 38 years old. The guy that should be the best hitter on the team is batting .228. The guy that is supposed to be blossoming into a star is batting .209.

The Pirates, who never pay players, paid two guys to extend them long term. Bryan Reynolds and Ke’Bryan Hayes, and neither has been good this year. They can’t afford to get as little out of these two as they have this year. Reynolds isn’t going anywhere, but Hayes should. He still has an elite glove, but that bat is completely hollow. The problem is that I don’t know who wants a no hit third baseman, a position typically reserved for some power.

Oneil Cruz is the most talented player on the team. The problem is that talent only shows up for two weeks here and two weeks there. When Cruz is going bad he is a strikeout machine. He also looks lackadaisical far too often. I think he cares, but the body language is often contradictory. Cruz turns 27 later this year and more should be expected at this point in his career. I just don’t think there is any way to justify an extension for Cruz at this point.

The rest of this offense ranges from below average to putrid.

The putrid is due to owner Bob Nutting’s refusal to spend adequate dollars and GM Ben Cherington’s complete ineptitude. It is owner’s malpractice that Cherington still has his job and will apparently be in charge of yet one more draft and one more trade deadline. Needless to say, his track record is subpar.

With that in mind, here are some thoughts on what the Pirates should do over the next month.

  • Play more of the young guys. I have said this a million times on my podcast. I know they young guys may never pan out, but you have to find out once and for all. Henry Davis should be the primary catcher. Joey Bart is hitting .245 with 1 home run and is a poor catcher. Liover Peguero should be called up and finally get a chance to play shortstop. Jack Suwinski should be recalled and play left field. Despite the last two games, Tommy Pham should not be holding anyone back from playing. The problem is Ben Cherington is trying to justify his moves so Pham, Bart, and Isaiah Kiner-Falefa will continue to play.
  • Trade. Trade. Trade. Teams have already inquired about Kiner-Falefa. He should be joined on the block by Bart(backup catchers are always needed), Pham(veteran?), Hayes(hey, he’s a gold glover), Adam Frazier(see Pham). These trades may not bring much in return, but they would allow for those young guys to get playing time.
  • Trade. Trade. Trade. Part II. David Bednar seems to have righted the ship and Dennis Santana has been a solid late inning reliever. Those types of players often bring higher returns. I’m not sure I trade both, as someone has to close games.
  • Trade. Trade. Trade. Part III. The one surplus this team has is starting pitching. Braxton Ashcroft is ready to join the rotation. Johan Oviedo was terrific two years ago, and after missing last season with Tommy John he is throwing simulated games. Bubba Chandler has hit a rough patch in AAA, but he will be in Pittsburgh at some point this year. Andrew Heaney is on a one year contract so he is going to be traded. Bailey Falter has turned his career around. Both Heaney and Falter are left handed, which is a plus at the deadline. Mitch Keller would be coveted by many teams. I would think two of these guys will be traded. The downside is I don’t trust Cherington to get good return.
  • Someone kidnap Nutting and force him to watch game after game until he agrees to sell the team.

I know none of this matters as long as Nutting and Cherington are in place. At least a new GM would bring a different approach to managing a limited budget. At this point, just humor the fans.

Nick Gonzalez is hitting .320 and playing solid defense at second base. Give us a lineup of Spencer Horowitz(not sold on him in the least but someone has to play first base), Gonzalez, Peguero, Jared Triolo/Hayes(if not traded), Suwinski, Cruz, Reynolds, Davis, and McCutchen. What was that Branch Rickey quote to Ralph Kiner when he wanted a raise? “We finished last with you, and we can finish last without you.” If the young guys continue to flounder, at least you gave it one more try. Either way, it won’t affect the standings.

This is an embarrassing product, the last two games notwithstanding, and allowing the same man to construct future rosters is insanity.

Fire Ben Cherington and follow the blueprint laid out above. Then maybe, just maybe, be ready to spend a little in the offseason.

Yea, I know. I laughed a little as I typed that last sentence.

Just my two cents…