By Tim Clark / / Column, Tim's Two Cents
Two

The college football playoff committee released their first set of rankings last week. The next rankings come out tonight. Here’s the problem. It is a committee full of suit wearing idiots who have no set criteria for ranking teams.  If this wasn’t true, Texas A&M would be ranked number one.

I was always taught to Keep It Simple Stupid. Obviously results are the most important criteria. Then you have to look at schedule strength and how the teams are playing(eye test). It isn’t rocket science.

This may be the perfect time to remind people that my 8 team proposal would be perfect this year. There is a pretty big chasm between title contenders and teams that are just decent. There simply aren’t 12 teams worthy of a playoff berth.

There isn’t a playoff caliber team in the ACC. The Big 12 has one. Ole Miss will assuredly be a playoff team despite near losses to Arkansas and Washington State at home. Oregon or USC will most likely become the third Big Ten team. As a card carrying member of the Trojan fan club, I can assure you they aren’t quite there yet. Oregon could quite possibly be the most overrated team in the country. No Group of Five team is worthy most seasons, and certainly not this year. Texas, a playoff team? I don’t think so. Even the top teams have flaws. Georgia finds ways to win, but just not convincingly. Alabama slogged through a home game with coachless LSU this past Saturday. Indiana looked overmatched against a five loss Penn State team. Notre Dame has one decent win versus USC and two losses. Even Ohio State and Texas A&M have flaws, but every team has flaws so I won’t hold that against them.

Who needs a room full of idiots in suits when you have one idiot who wouldn’t be caught dead in a suit. Here is my Two Cent Top 12 plus one Group of Five team that will crash the party.

  1. Texas A&M (9-0): Unlike the committee, I am rewarding the Aggies for scheduling Notre Dame, and winning the game on the road. It is the best win of the season. The Aggies do benefit from avoiding Alabama and Georgia. There is a good chance they see Alabama in the SEC Championship.
  2. Ohio State (9-0): With Texas and Penn State being worse than expected, the Buckeyes best win may be at Illinois. The Heisman front runner, in my humble opinion, is quarterback Julian Sayin. His receivers, as has become a Buckeye tradition, are the best in the country. The defense is one of the best in the sport. The weak link in Columbus is twofold. One, the offensive line is only adequate. Two, the schedule has not presented many challenges.
  3. Indiana (10-0): Next stop, Big Ten Championship Game. The eye test tells me this team isn’t in the ballpark talent wise with the likes of Ohio State. On the other hand, the Hoosiers have road wins against Iowa, Oregon, and Penn State along with a trouncing of Illinois at home. Curt Cignetti is confident to a fault and will have a chance to walk the walk in the championship game.
  4. Alabama (8-1): After a surprising opening day loss to Florida State, Alabama has been rolling. The Tide boast wins over Missouri, Vandy, Georgia, and Tennessee. Barring an upset, Alabama will play in the SEC Championship Game.  I wrote Alabama off after they lost in spectacular fashion to Florida State. They have been proving me wrong ever since.
  5. Georgia (8-1): This is the ultimate”Just win baby” team this year. Close, uneven wins against Ole Miss, Tennessee, Auburn, and Florida have me questioning how good this team really is. The offense seems to be hit or miss too often. I still don’t like to bet against Kirby Smart. Just keep Alabama out of his bracket
  6. Texas Tech (9-1): I am giving the Red Raiders this spot based on the eye test. Their defense is second to none. The offense is a little too much hit or miss. Certainly, the schedule has been less than challenging, but the only loss came at Arizona State without the Red Raiders starting quarterback. The defense is legit.
  7. Notre Dame (7-2): The two early losses not withstanding, Notre Dame looks like one of the three or four best teams in the country. Their best win is against USC, but they have beaten their weaker opponents handily. I have two fears with the Irish. First, a good passing team can score on the Irish. Also, the Notre Dame offense occasionally becomes one dimensional. That dimension is dominating however.
  8. Ole Miss (9-1): The Rebs are the victims of some opponents(LSU, South Carolina, Florida) having down years. Thus, the strength of schedule isn’t as good as it could be. Additionally, they were a few minutes from losing to Arkansas and Washington State at home. Georgia also showed the vulnerability of the Ole Miss defense. Still, Lane Kiffin finds ways offensively to compete with most teams.
  9. Oregon (8-1): I never thought I would say this, but the Oregon offense is average. Mainly because the quarterback is average. The win at Penn State no longer looks good, and in three of the last four games the Ducks have scored 21 points or less. The Ducks host USC and travel to Washington to end the season. They are not an automatic right now.
  10. Texas (7-2): Texas has looked, well, not good. They do own wins over Oklahoma and Vanderbilt. Plus, they get credit from me for scheduling Ohio State. If the Longhorns survive a finish that includes at Georgia and Texas A&M at home they will have more than earned this spot.
  11. Oklahoma (7-2): I am not sold on the Sooners. John Mater was way overrated at quarterback, but the Sooners did claim victories over Michigan and at Tennessee. They must survive a trip to Tuscaloosa this week and home games against Missouri and LSU. Even if they win out, I think it will be a close call for the Sooners in terms of the playoff.
  12. Vanderbilt (7-2): The Commodores lost to the two big boys on the schedule. They do boast some okay wins, but the eye test is iffy in my opinion. It is a great story, but I just don’t think this is a playoff team.

In one of the many foolish things instituted into the playoff format is the Group of Five getting an automatic berth. It is what it is, so here are my top four choices for who claims this bid.

  • South Florida
  • Tulane
  • North Texas
  • James Madison

The ACC will also get an automatic bid, meaning two of the teams in my top 12 will not make the cut. There are a few possibilities to win the ACC. I think Georgia Tech and Duke have the best chances to finish with just one conference loss. From there, I will take Georgia Tech to win the ACC Championship and get the automatic berth to the playoffs.

Other teams are still in the running for a berth.

  • BYU (8-1): The Cougars have one good win(Utah). Would the committee be willing to take a second Big 12 team?
  • Miami (8-2): Will the committee be willing to hold their collective nose and ignore the two dismal losses Miami suffered? The Canes do have a high quality win over Notre Dame.
  • USC (7-2): If the Trojans win out they are in. Winning on the road has been difficult, to say the least, for Lincoln Riley. So winning at Oregon isn’t overly likely.
  • Michigan (7-2): If the Wolverines win out it would be hard to see them left out because it would mean they beat Ohio State again. This is definitely not a playoff quality team, but the resume would say it is a playoff team.

The top 8 above should be automatic unless disaster strikes Notre Dame. Then there will be a throw away bid handed to the Group of Five. That leaves three spots for Oregon, Texas, Oklahoma, Vandy, BYU, Miami, USC, and Michigan. It could become a battle of attrition, as many of those teams are likely to lose again. Oregon probably gets in even with one more loss even though there wouldn’t be much meat on that bone. I originally thought this would be the season we saw a three loss team make the playoffs. It would take total chaos for that to happen now. At that point I think the committee would definitely take BYU over a three loss team.

It certainly will be an interesting finish to the season. Eight teams would have been plenty of teams this year —or any other year.

Let me go get a new stick with which to beat this dead horse.

Tweet of the Week

I can’t imagine a team not wanting to hire this man. You would win and be provided with this entertainment on a weekly basis.

 

 

 

 

Weekly Shiny Penny

This week’s shiny penny is dedicated to two friends, Scott and Rex, and all the other Gus Johnson haters. Gus is a treasure and should not be subjected to the hate. Case in point.


A Penny For My Final Thought…

Tony Petitti is clearly a weasel.

The Big Ten commissioner is trying to slide a private equity big money deal under the table to his member schools. For lack of a better term, it appears to be a bailout for schools that have overspent and could use the financial windfall at the risk of giving up equity in their schools.

It would also appease the bigger brands in the conference. Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State would receive a significantly larger amount than other schools. It would also lock the schools into the conference in for an extra ten years.

Two schools have refused to go along with this questionable move. USC and Michigan have said they won’t agree to the deal. Other boards from other schools have also been skeptical of how this would all work.

Michigan has stated they want nothing to do with selling equity in their university. They also said it is simply a bailout for financially mismanaged schools of which they are not one.

USC is also opposed to selling equity off and certainly wants nothing to do with a deal that gives them a smaller piece of the pie. In the PAC 12 the Trojans got equal parts when they —and UCLA, Oregon, and Washington— should have received a larger slice. Now the Big Ten wants to short them on this deal. Plus, USC is not interested in giving up some of their control to a mysterious private equity group.

The Big Ten claims they will give USC and Michigan a deadline to agree to the deal.

Both schools should stand firm.

The Big Ten certainly isn’t moving forward without Michigan. Without Michigan the Big Ten would bring in far, far less revenue. They need Michigan.

As for USC, the conference went out of its way to lure the Trojans in. They wanted access to the LA market and all it brings to the table. Why would they threaten to lose that already.

Michigan and USC are two of the biggest three brands in the conference. 

USC should absolutely explore going independent. Bring Michigan along. USC, Michigan, and Notre Dame could play every year and USC could get back to its rivalries with Cal and Stanford. USC needs to start being more proactive. They got a bad deal from the Pac 12 and now the Big Ten is trying to lump them in with the Rutgers and Marylands of the conference.

Why schools like Rutgers and Maryland would agree to such foolishness is mystifying. Sure the money would be nice, but if they left the Big Ten there certainly would be a more appropriate landing spot.

USC is a huge brand, historic, and prestigious both athletically and academically.

The Trojans should join hands with Michigan and tell the incompetent Petitti to stick it. Trying to strong arm and intimidate tow iconic brands like USC and Michigan seems like a very bad idea.

Just my two cents…