Double double toil and trouble fire burn and cauldron bubble.

Man, Billy Shakespeare sure did have a way with words. I hear he had a pretty good mid range jump shot, too.

It is March. Championship week is less than a week away, and a lot of the little guys get started this week. It is everyone’s last chance to put on their dancin’ shoes.

With that said, I would like to tweak that famous quote from Macbeth. 

Bubble bubble toil and trouble.

Yes, the bubble is a nasty place. Teams must toil these last two weeks, and they still may find themselves in trouble.

This year a new person has drawn the ire of multiple coaches. Joe Lunardi, aka Joey Brackets, has annoyed coaches around the country with his bracketology analysis. And some wonder if Lunardi has too much influence over the brackets.

Lunardi had the ACC fired up when he —accurately by the way— suggested they were down again this year. I think it was more the way he said it, calling out some former players of the year from the conference. Wake Forest has spent the last month hovering just above the bubble. Head coach Steve Forbes took issue with Lunardi, suggesting that Lunardi wields excess power and people believe everything he says. Pitt coach Jeff Capel said that he has issues with the NET rankings that Lunardi seems to put quite a bit of stock in. Capel said the Big 12 schedules easy out of conference games and then blows those teams out to improve their NET rank.

For the record:

  • Houston- Xavier, Dayton, Texas A&M, Utah
  • Iowa State- Virginia Tech, Texas A&M, Iowa
  • Baylor- Auburn, Florida, Duke, Seton Hall, Michigan State
  • Kansas- Kentucky, Marquette, Tennessee, Missouri, Indiana, UConn
  • Texas Tech- Villanova, Michigan, Butler
  • BYU- San Diego, Arizona State, NC State, Utah
  • Texas- UConn, Marquette, LSU
  • TCU- Clemson, Arizona State, Nevada
  • Oklahoma- USC, Iowa, Providence, Arkansas, North Carolina

These are the teams in the Big 12 that will make the tournament. Some of those teams don’t have brutal schedules, but in general I don’t think you can say they ducked anyone. The fact is that the Big 12 is clearly deeper and better than the ACC. Anyone can see that.

In my opinion, Gonzaga was never going to not make the tournament. Lunardi, on the other hand, has pretty much always had the Zags on the bubble. Even after beating Kentucky on the road and St. Mary’s on the road this weekend, Lunardi has Gonzaga as the last team getting a bye. Longtime Gonzaga head coach Mark Few said it is “amateur hour” with the bracketologists.

Lunardi, Jerry Palm, and all the others —maybe even me— should be viewed as just people with an educated opinion. Every fan has opinions, and if you watch as many games as I do it is an educated opinion. A problem arises when the committee is influenced by these guys, or the perceptions they are throwing out there with their bracket predictions. As much as I hate committees, I would certainly never accuse this one of being influenced by these guys.

Lunardi is the king of bracketologists. All of these guys are employed to give their opinions on the college basketball landscape. That is what they do. Lunardi now updates brackets year around. Admittedly, that is excessive to the max. Still, they are doing their jobs, which is giving opinions. That is all bracketology really is.

What would be nice is to know what the actual committee values the most. Is it NET, KenPom, Strength of schedule, conference strength, last ten games, or the eye test? Over the years the committee has told us all of those are most important at one time or another.

It is so much fun trying to analyze the bubble. During these last two weeks every game could shift things. Just since last week when I gave my Two Cents on who is in and who is out, things have definitely changed.

Let me critique and adjust my thoughts after another topsy turvy week of college hoops.

  • ACC- Duke and North Carolina are going to be high seeds, potentially 2 seeds. Clemson will get a middling seeds. Going in to the final week of regular season games, I think Wake Forest would be wise to win their two home games against Georgia Tech and Clemson. That would get the Deacons to 20 wins. With a NET of  31 and KenPom of 21, Wake should still be fine. Virginia should absolutely be out. They have scored under 50 points in 3 of their last 4 games. The Hoos have a respectable NET of 49 but an ugly 69 ranking in KenPom. Pitt is 44 in both rankings. Much like Wake Forest, the Panthers finish with two very winnable games at home. Win those two games and don’t lose the first game in the ACC Tournament, and Pitt could earn the bid. I still think the ACC gets five teams into the tournament, so Pitt has a real chance.
  • Big 12- This seems as simple as it did last week. Eight teams —Houston, Iowa State, Baylor, Texas Tech, Kansas, Texas, BYU, TCU— are in. My only change of thought is on Kansas. I don’t think this team can put it together enough to get to the Final Four.
  • Big East- I was slightly off about this conference. It turns out that the Big East is very top heavy. UConn is the favorite to win it all and will be the overall top seed. Marquette and Creighton are Sweet Sixteen good. From there, a big drop-off can be seen. I thought Seton Hall and Providence were in good shape, then last week happened. Providence lost handily to both Marquette and Villanova, while Seton Hall got smoked by Creighton and UConn. Both teams now have suspect NET and KenPom rankings. I now have dropped both to out. On the contrary I have moved Villanova to the last four in. On the road against Seton Hall and home for Creighton won’t be easy, but the Cats NET and KenPom are excellent. After Rick Pitino’s interesting motivational technique, St. John’s has not lost. The Johnnies have an easy finish and solid computer numbers. Now it is just whether they have to play in the First Four.
  • Big Ten- Purdue will be a one seed for sure, and Illinois is trending to a two or three seed. From there things are bleak. Nebraska is an interesting but can they win away from home? Northwestern is also interesting, but will need the right matchup to get a win in the tournament. Michigan State still intrigues me, but a little less so after three straight losses. Make no mistake, however, the Spartans are more than comfortably in the tournament. Wisconsin has dropped more seed lines in the last month than Donald Trump has dropped court cases. The Badgers have lost 7 out of 9 and still faces Purdue on the road. Wisconsin is in, but they will be fortunate to stay in the top a seed lines. Everyone else is still out. Iowa has won 4 of 5, and if they beat Illinois then win a couple games in the Big Ten Tournament it could squeak the Hawkeyes into the Big Dance. Ohio State has made a lot of noise since firing coach Chris Holtmann. Much like last year, it is too little too late for the Buckeyes.
  • Mountain West- The MW has almost become another Power Six conference. They still have a really good shot at getting 6 bids. Nothing displays how the top 6 teams are so similar than their NET and KenPom rankings. San Diego State is the clear best team, but the other top 5 have NET ranks between 24 and 41 and KenPom rankings between 35 and 42. The one team that is trending down, as in down to the First Four, is New Mexico. If they lose at Utah State and have a quick exit from the Mountain West Tournament, it could be NIT for the Lobos.
  • Pac-12- Arizona may get a one seed, and I think the Wildcats could make a legit run in the tournament. Washington State is another fun story, and one I will be pulling for. Unfortunately, I think a quick exit could be in store for the Cougars. They are not playing great of late. I still think Colorado will get in. If they can get a win at Oregon and at least one win in the conference tournament, the Buffs should be on solid ground. To me, no other team is all that close to making it to the Big Dance.
  • SEC- Tennessee is Final Four good, and I am not moving off that pick. Kentucky is lurking, but must play better defense. Alabama, South Carolina, Florida, and Auburn will all get top 5 or 6 seeds. Mississippi State is the closest team to the bubble, and the Bulldogs aren’t really close. Everybody else is pretty clearly out. You could easily see 4 or 5 SEC teams make the Sweet Sixteen.
  • WCC- As mentioned above, Gonzaga is in. So, too, is St. Mary’s. So the only thing left to see here is whether a team like San Francisco can become a bid stealer.
  • MVC- The only question left in the MVC is whether Indiana State and/or Drake warrants an at large bid. Indiana State probably would have a better chance of an at large bid. I think both teams should be in. Another issue would be if a third team wins the conference tourney. No way the committee takes three MVC teams.
  • AAC- I still think Florida Atlantic would hold on to an at large bid if they don’t win the AAC conference tournament. Memphis, who suddenly is red hot and has the talent of a tournament team, and South Florida, winners of 14 in a row and likely 16 in a row, will most likely have to win the conference tournament. South Florida’s computer numbers are awful, and Memphis doesn’t have a lot of computer numbers to hang their hat on either. This could be an under the radar conference tournament due to the implications. Memphis is a team nobody wants to see opposite them in round one, but they have to get there first.

That does it for the potential multiple bid leagues. Now, what about the very little one bid leagues? Who will win these auto bids? Let me get my dart board out and figure this out.

  • ASUN: Lipscomb Bisons
  • American East: Vermont Catamounts
  • Atlantic 10: Dayton Flyers which will prevent a bid stealer.
  • Big Sky: Weber State Wildcats
  • Big South: High Point Panthers
  • Big West: UC Irvine Anteaters
  • CAA: Hofstra Pride
  • Conference USA: Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
  • Horizon: Youngstown State Penguins
  • Ivy: Princeton
  • MAAC: Quinnipiac Bobcats
  • MAC: Akron Zips
  • MEAC: Norfolk State Spartans
  • Northeast: Merrimack Warriors
  • OVC: Morehead State Eagles
  • Patriot: Colgate Raiders
  • Southern: Sanford Bulldogs
  • Southland: McNeese Cowboys
  • SWAC: Texas Southern Tigers
  • Summit: Saint Thomas-Minnesota Tommies
  • Sun Belt: James Madison Dukes
  • WAC: Grand Canyon Lopes

You know there will be some six or seven seed in one of these 22 conferences that has 16 or 17 losses that ends up marching through to the Big Dance. It is just impossible to pick which one.

With those 22 auto bids plus the teams that are clearly in, let me adjust my 4’s from last week’s column.

  • Last 4 byes: Florida Atlantic, Wake Forest, Nevada, St. John’s
  • Last 4 in: Villanova, New Mexico, Pitt, Iowa
  • First 4 out: Memphis, Seton Hall, Providence, Virginia

This is a great time of year. What fun to try and decipher who is in and whose bubble will burst. Coaches have a lot of pressure on them, but with the moaning about bracketologists it makes them seem petty. All bracketologists are doing is offering an opinion. If the committee is so weak minded that they use any of these guys as a source then shame on them. It will be these complaints that cause the NCAA to make the grave mistake of expanding the tournament.

The best part is yet to come, and so much shuffling of the cards remains.

Bids start being earned in four days. Coaches need to stop yelling at bracketologists, players need to be up for the challenge, and fans should buckle up for another wild ride.

March Madness is here.

Two Cent Takes

College Hoops

~Maybe the craziest, and certainly bizarre, inbound to win a game right here.

 

 

~The court storm/Jay Bilas debate got really heated, including in this column a week ago and moreso on my Musings podcast. Sister Jean still cruising at 104 plus the Bilas comments on court storming led to this beauty.

 

Kudos to Bilas for having a sense of humor.

 

~The goaltending reviews have gotten out of control. Officials call it goaltending even when they don’t think it is because they know they can review it at the next stoppage. Please end this nonsense.

~This was certainly in the running for the weekly Shiny Penny. Great scene in Wisconsin Saturday with the return of Howard Moore.

 

 

~Kyle Filipowski’s recovery from a near career ending injury during last week’s dreaded court storm is nothing short of amazing.

 

 

~Caitlin Clark broke the scoring record…on a technical foul shot because of this nonsensical call.

 


Caitlin, I’d like you to meet Kyle F. I think he is your kind of guy. Clark is obviously a fantastic player who, unfortunately, has a flopper’s mindset. And please stop telling me Pete Maravich lost his record. He played men’s basketball, and Clark plays women’s basketball. 

~In case you need to see a play that perfectly explains why Kenny Payne won’t be Louisville’s head coach at this time two weeks from now. Oh, how many times I have heard an announcer ask, “How does that happen?”

 

NHL

~The Penguins season encapsulated in one game from last Saturday night. Up 3-1 wit 10 minutes left. Complete control. I went to bed. In the morning I wake up to see they lost 4-3. 

 

That would be a bad pass by Ryan Graves, bad puck handling by Kris Letang, and typically Tristan Jarry not being able to make a big save. The end of an incredible era is coming to a close. It will be up to GM Kyle Dubas to start fixing this mess. Malkin is a total nothing at this point, but won’t go anywhere. Obviously Letang and Sidney Crosby aren’t going anywhere. Everyone else will be fair game. I maintain the coach should be changed as well. Mike Sullivan’s message is falling on deaf ears. Bring someone else in to lead the rebuild, or whatever comes next.

~Matt Rempe has gotten into a fight almost every game since being called up to the Rangers. These fights are total garbage. The league should be past this nonsense, particularly when it is staged like this one.

 

How about the cheap shot artists? Always picking on a star, these guys have to go.

 

 

Hockey is such a fun sport to watch because of the skill these guys have. All the cheap stuff and fighting is ruining the sport.

MLB

~Phillies pitcher Zach Wheeler signed a 3 year extension for $126 million. That is 42 million dollars per year, which sets a record for yearly salary in a contract extension. Wheeler also becomes one of the highest paid pitchers in the game. How careful will the Phillies be with Wheeler so they can protect their investment? The insane gets insane-ier.

~Paul Skenes should come north with the Pirates. He won’t. Easy to argue he needs some seasoning in the minors before being thrown into a major league rotation. His 102 mph fastball says otherwise.

~Henry Davis is crushing the ball at a .400 clip wit a couple home runs. Those that have seen the team in Bradenton also say he looks better behind the plate than free agent signee Yasmal Grandal. These geniuses still claim he will start the season in AAA. Moronic.

NFL

~Jason Kelce made it official Monday by announcing his retirement. The Eagles have one more hole to fill now.

~Special teams coaches have made a weird kickoff proposal.

 


If you read that entire thread, you have to realize how idiotic this proposal is. At this point what is the use in even having kickoffs?

~The fact Denver GM George Paton is still employed after the Russell Wilson era is a minor miracle. Check out the official damage.

 

That is officially disastrous. Does Vegas take a swing at Wilson to get a dig in on their division rival?

Miscellaneous

~What a lousy week for guys I cheered loudly for in my life. Mr. Reliable for the Steelers, Andy Russell, Pirates pitcher Larry Demery, 1979 World Series champion catcher for the Pirates Ed Ott, the coolest guy to ever use a toothpick, UL Washington, NFL insider elite, Chris Mortensen, pro wrestlers Virgil and Ole Anderson, and actor/comedian Richard Lewis all passed away in the past week. Lousy, lousy week.

The Weekly Shiny Penny

Last week I had a take on JuJu Watkins, the freshman phenom playing for USC’s women’s basketball team. She’s a star on the court, but this story tells you why she and her family are bigger stars off the court. Stay home and make it better.

 

 

A Penny For My Final Thought…

The NFLPA had its players fill out surveys covering a variety of topics. Here are the results of the Pittsburgh Steelers player survey.

 

Much ado about mostly nothing.

The biggest negative on the survey was the thing about family treatment. Steelers players have made it known that they want to be able to bring as many family and friends as they want to games, and they want their family and friends to have a first rate experience.

The rest is a big, fat meh.

I am both not shocked and a little concerned about the owner getting an F, but that may be a result of the family treatment. The Rooney’s have always been frugal, so I am sure Art II tries to cut corners with certain things.

The weight room probably should be looked at, as this is a place players spend a lot of important time. They also should quit allowing Pitt to share the facilities. Other than being a good neighbor, the Steelers gain no benefit from this relationship. Well, that is except being able to get to know Kenny Pickett really well. Apparently not well enough.

Coach Mike Tomlin is beloved, so him receiving an A is no surprise.

Nutritionists are important these days, so a D grade there is a little troubling.

The one that got me laughing is the locker room. The locker room isn’t suppose to be a family resort. It may be aging, but it serves its purpose. No free agent turns a team down because the locker room isn’t up to a certain level. You get dressed or get undressed, shower, and get out. It should not be a “hang out” facility. Players, today, are so pampered. I just shook my head when I saw that grade. 

The Steelers need to find a way to upgrade the nutritional, strength and conditioning, and weight room because that is a huge need for all players. They definitely need to fix the family situation.

The locker room is much ado about nothing. It is a locker room not a five star resort. Use it for what it should be used for.

If the Steelers really want to be first rate as an organization, then forget about the locker room and find a competent quarterback to lead your team. That is the real fix that is needed.

Just my two cents…