By Tim Clark / / Column, Tim's Two Cents
Two

All of the CFP contenders have played nine games. They all have three games left. Parity has created a jumbled up mess, with lots of teams still holding out hope they can earn a playoff spot.

NIL means every team can pay for some good players. It also means depth isn’t nearly as good. All of those factors create parity. Parity equals mediocrity.

The bad thing is no truly great teams, of which we have always had in college football.

The good thing is there are a lot more teams that can legitimately win the national title. Even more teams are capable of winning at least one playoff game.

If the first CFP rankings were any indication, this year’s committee has no clue.

Parity + guys in suits locked in a room = havoc.

Let’s sort this mess out.

Who are locks? Who else will finish with two losses in the power conferences? Which conference will get the most bids?

Locks

  • Georgia- There is little to no chance the Dawgs lose two more games. It isn’t out of the question that Georgia gets ambushed at South Carolina in a couple weeks. Georgia looks like the best team in the country, and the Dawgs could be in line for the top seed.
  • Notre Dame- With the win against Miami, the Irish could now actually lose another game and still be a lock. It would be the difference between a bye and being a lower seed in the bracket.
  • Group of Six- This will most likely be Boise State. This is literally a guaranteed bid.

ACC

  • Miami - The loss to Notre Dame will cost the Canes seeding, but they are firmly in the field. Games against Duke, Virginia Tech, and Boston College should be a breeze. Then a game against, presumably, Wake Forest in the ACC Championship. Miami would most likely still get in with two losses despite not having one good win on their resume.
  • Wake Forest- The best story in college football, the Deacons are set up to have a real chance at getting into the playoffs. The key is winning Saturday at SMU. If they win Saturday and can handle Georgia Tech and Duke they would get a second crack at Miami. A close loss —or at least a non blow out— should allow Wake to sneak into the playoffs.
  • SMU- The only other ACC team with a shot at the playoffs is SMU, and it is a slim chance. The Mustangs would have to beat Wake Forest, go on the road to beat Notre Dame, and take down Miami in the ACC Championship game. A tall task that I can’t see happening in the least.

Big 12

  • Utah- There is a scenario where the Utes miss out on the playoffs. It would start by losing at Arizona this weekend. Then Utah would have to lose in the Big 12 Championship. A two loss Utah could conceivably still make the playoffs pending the fallout from other conferences. I think the Utes are in.
  • Texas Tech- Tech has been less than impressive this year, all while playing a patty cake schedule. They gave up 48 to West Virginia last weekend…at home. I look for the Red Raiders to lose at Oklahoma State. If they sneak by, then they go to a rejuvenated Baylor. If they escape it all they land in the Big 12 Championship Game. Win or lose, Tech probably gets in.
  • BYU has one of the best wins of the season over Notre Dame. The Cougars are 1-2 since, with the win being a lackluster effort. They should win out. With a little help, BYU could get another crack at Utah. There certainly will be no three loss Big 12 teams make the playoffs, so the Cougars would have to win their way in.
  • Houston- See above. Two close losses in Big 12 play, but must win out and win the Big 12 to get in. 

SEC

  • Georgia- In.
  • Alabama- Should win out, although you never know about the rivalry game against Auburn. Either the Tide doesn’t make the SEC Championship Game and finishes with two losses, or Alabama makes the SEC Championship Game and risks a third loss. In both scenarios the Tide makes the playoffs.
  • Texas- If Texas loses at LSU the Longhorns would have three losses and, barring upsets, no chance to make the SEC Championship Game. I don’t think three losses eliminates Texas, as it just feels like the committee wants the Longhorns in the playoffs. Beat LSU and whether they reach the conference championship game or not won’t matter.
  • Tennessee- The Vols get LSU at home in two weeks. Tennessee should be good with a win against LSU. They have a dominant win over Alabama and two close losses. I think the Vols are in really great shape with a win versus LSU.
  • Kentucky- The Cats would need to win out, and even then I am not sure they get in. The two losses on Kentucky’s resume are ugly blowout losses.
  • Ole Miss- Out.
  • South Carolina- The Gamecocks are interesting. If they would upset Georgia and win out, it would be hard to see the committee not reward South Carolina when they are on a seven game heater.
  • Missouri- No chance. 

  • LSU- If Lane can win out LSU would have wins against Tennessee and Texas. It would be a compelling argument and one the committee would have to look at closely.

    Big Ten

  • UCLA- Just as we thought. UCLA is undefeated with a late season date with USC. UCLA is all but a lock to make the playoffs in Bob Chesney’s first season. It is hard to see UCLA losing more than one game. That would assure the Bruins of a spot in the Big Ten Championship game.
  • Indiana- The defending champs have been extremely lackluster all season. They are rip for the picking for USC this Saturday. The problem that presents is me trusting USC on the road. The Hoosiers will make the playoffs.
  • Iowa- The Hawkeyes have three more very winnable games. At 10-2 they would be a favorite to make the playoffs, despite no really good wins.
  • USC- Win out and the Trojans are in with a bullet. That would mean wins against Ohio State, Indiana, and UCLA. If the USC from two weeks ago shows up the rest of the season, there is a chance. Otherwise, USC will fritter away yet another opportunity. If the Trojans beat Indiana and lose to UCLA, they still hold a slim chance to sneak into the playoffs. Unfortunately, USC is going up against a negative national perception that they cemented in Wisconsin just three weeks ago.
  • Oregon- The Ducks have risen from the bottom of the lake to revive their season. The win over Ohio State last weekend in Columbus most likely assures a 9-3 finish. The Ducks have to leapfrog a bunch of other teams to be considered for the playoffs. Don’t totally count them out.

After that analysis, you come to the realization that the games still have to be played and every week this season has seemingly been different and unpredictable. Therefore, this is my best guess at the playoffs by season’s end.

  1. Georgia
  2. Utah
  3. Notre Dame
  4. Indiana
  5. UCLA
  6. Miami
  7. Alabama
  8. Tennessee
  9. Texas
  10. Wake Forest
  11. Iowa
  12. Boise State

Utah, UCLA, WakeForest, and Iowa in the playoffs is just as we envisioned back in August.

The good thing is I won’t have to write this column next year when the 24 team playoff completely renders the regular season useless. Next year the only games that will be meaningful are late games between three and four loss teams from power conferences. Who isn’t excited for three loss Wisconsin versus four loss Northwestern?

College football always reaching out for the bag. Enjoy the next month of games. It is the last season they will be viewed as urgent.

Tweet of the Week

I said this when it became clear USC was leaving the Pac-12. Go independent. Overcrowded conferences never made sense. Now, with a 24 team playoff and no conference championship game it really makes sense. For every team.

 


The Weekly Shiny Penny

When one of your stars is willing to lay out in a blowout, that’s a great sign. Pat Kelsey has never had a problem getting his guys to go hard. Louisville may have a legit shot this year.

 


A Penny For My Final Thoughts…

Some randoms this week…

  • Why is Tom Wilson still permitted to play in the NHL?

 

  • With the Steelers on a bye, this was the least I have paid attention to the NFL in ages. And I was just fine with it. The NFL product is simply not very good.
  • To that point, this week the following bums started at quarterback in NFL games: Joe Fagnano, Carson Wentz, Michael Penix, Shedeur Sanders, Daniel Jones, Bryce Young, Malik Willis, JJ McCarthy, Joe Milton, Geno Smith, and Gardner Minshew. There was a time not that long ago when a lot of these clowns would not have even been on an NFL roster let alone starting a game.
  • Joe Buck and Troy Aikman may be at odds, but it doesn’t come across on the air. They are as good as it gets, along with Collinsworth and Tirico. Another example of ESPN stupidity. Maybe Pat McAfee will take over for Aikman. He is, after all, running the networks.
  • Penn State and Pitt played each other in men’s basketball Sunday night. What a wacky concept.
  • Mike Rhodes must have been drugged when he applied for the Penn State job. He seems to be a good teacher who runs solid concepts. He is working with hot garbage. Pat Kraft is a disgrace.
  • After easing into the start of the season, get ready for some great college hoops over the next three plus weeks.
  • Why on earth is the NBA playing the Cup again? Just plain stupid.
  • I tried to watch the 76ers/Cavs game, and I t was difficult. Play limited defense and on offense just chuck up a bunch of threes. Awful.
Just my two cents…