By Tim Clark / / Column, Tim's Two Cents
Two

I woke up Sunday and ran to my calendar. I tore off the February page and stared with delight at the page labeled March.

Ah, yes, March. Sure I am excited for Spring. And who doesn’t count down the days until St. Patrick’s Day? I mean, green beer. C’mon. Then there is International Women’s Day and the Women’s Curling Championship. Plus we got a blood moon last night.

Okay, I can’t go through with this silliness any longer. The real reason I am ecstatic for March is the same reason I get ecstatic every March.

Madness.

The Masters may be a tradition like no other, but so is March Madness. It is the single best sporting event of the year. The time when expressions like buzzer beater, Cinderella, Big Dance, and bracket busters become part of our every day lexicon. This year they’ve given us a new acronym —WAB— which means wins above bubble.

The fun really starts this week with the start of conference tournaments. The little guys who get one final shot at glory take center stage before giving way to the stars of the show next week. By this time next week, seven bids will be secured by teams that hope they can claim at least one pelt in the “Big Dance”.

As I look back at the past four months and try to forecast the month ahead, it is starting to look like five teams are separating from the pack. I sit here now —on March 3– I would be shocked if the nets in Indianapolis aren’t cut down by Duke, Arizona, Michigan, UConn, or Florida.

Here is how I see the field for March Madness shaping up.

ACC

There are two things I know about the ACC. First, the conference is better than last year only because it couldn’t get worse. Second, Duke is in a class of their own.

This conference will probably get 8 bids, however only three teams will be seeded 6 or higher.

  • In: Duke, Virginia, North Carolina, Miami, Clemson, NC State, Louisville
  • Bubbling ⬆️: SMU
  • Bubbling ⬇️: Cal, Stanford

Duke is a Final Four team, and maybe the most talented team in the country. Can Jon Scheyer finally get the Blue Devils to the winner’s circle? Virginia will be an interesting team in the tournament. I like them to potentially reach the Sweet 16. North Carolina is a wildcard. With Caleb Wilson —he will presumably be back— the Tar Heels are good. Without him they are meh. Miami should get a win in the tournament while the others look like one and done teams. Cal and Stanford will see their bubbles burst.

Big East

The Big East is bad. Just think if Kevin Willard had not turned Villanova around so quickly. This conference desperately needs Georgetown to break out of its malaise, and it wouldn’t hurt to see Xavier and Marquette to right the ship.

This could be a three bid league. Seton Hall may need to beat Xavier and then upset St. John’s to impress the committee.

  • In: UConn, St. John’s, Villanova
  • Bubbling ⬆️: Seton Hall

UConn is a veteran team with players and coaches that know how to win six straight and cut down the nets. They are Final Four worthy. I picked St. John’s to go to the Final Four and still think there is a path, but it will depend on matchups. Villanova is probably a first weekend loser. I am pulling for Seton Hall, but they don’t have a ton of meat on that bubbling bone.

Big 12

The Big 12 is top heavy, but that top is really heavy. Six really good teams, but a limited middle and bottom of the conference.

Six definite tournament teams with five of them likely to get a top 4 seed in one of the regions.

  • In: Arizona, Kansas, Houston, Iowa State, Texas Tech, BYU
  • Bubble ⬆️: UCF, TCU
  • Bubble ⬇️: Cincinnati, West Virginia

Arizona is one of the five best teams in the country, and the Wildcats were the clear best team for much of the season. Will Tommy Lloyd have what it takes come tournament time? Kansas, Houston, and Iowa State are Final Four worthy. If any team can break through that top five to get from a Final Four it could be these three teams. Texas Tech will eventually succumb to not having JT Toppin. BYU is fading fast, and could be an early exit in the tournament.

TCU is trending up and should join UCF as bubble winners who could win a game in the tourney. It looks like too little, too late for Cincinnati.

SEC

The depth of the SEC wins the day. They have teams at multiple levels of outcome going into the tournament, with Florida being elite. Again.

Double digit bids is not out of the equation.

  • In: Florida, Arkansas, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, Missouri, Vanderbilt
  • Bubbling⬆️: Georgia, Texas, Texas A&M
  • Bubbling ⬇️: Auburn

Florida is a Final Four candidate with a superior front line and a backcourt that continues to get better. With the right draw, Arkansas has the talent to reach a Final Four. Alabama won’t play enough defense in the long run, but easily could reach the Sweet Sixteen. Likewise Tennessee, with the exception of the Vols playing a bit more defense. Kentucky, Missouri, and Vandy could win a game, but reaching the second weekend seems a stretch. Georgia and Texas should be in, but A&M could use one more big win. Auburn simply has too many losses.

Big Ten

The Big Ten has four excellent teams, while the rest of the conference is either treading water or fading fast. Having said that, nine bids seems well within reach.

  • In: Michigan, Illinois, Michigan State, Nebraska, Purdue, Wisconsin, UCLA
  • Bubbling ⬆️: Iowa, Ohio State
  • Bubbling ⬇️: Indiana, USC

Michigan has spent most of the season as one of the three best teams in the country. The loss of LJ Cason for the season isn’t ideal, but the Wolverines should survive the injury. Illinois and Michigan State are Elite Eight capable teams. Nebraska is a great story and will be easy to root for. A Sweet Sixteen run could be in their future. Purdue and Wisconsin are hard to figure, and that inconsistency would worry me. The same could be said for UCLA, except they aren’t on the same rung of the ladder as Purdue and Wisconsin. Iowa and Ohio State should both get in and then get right back out. Indiana has a very slim chance of making the field, while USC is all but finished. Sort of like Chad Baker-Mazara.

Others

This section always starts with Gonzaga, but the Zagscould get company this year. I will list these teams as Contenders, Could Win Two, and Possible Cinderellas.

  • Contenders: Gonzaga
  • Could Win Two: St. Louis, St. Mary’s, VCU, Miami(OH), Utah State
  • Possible Cinderellas: Yale, High Point, Liberty, Stephen F. Austin, Santa Clara, Belmont, UNC-Wilmington

The Madness is nigh. It is always an unpredictable time of year. Slumping teams get hot. Hot teams go cold. Buzzers will be beaten. Guys will show onions, not literally of course.

So start stocking up on snacks, study your WAB, NET, BPI, and Quad 1A’s, and start working on your work excuses for the first two days of the Big Dance.

The First Four is only two weeks away.

Tweet of the Week

Good for Alex Karaban for never leaving UConn. Loyalty still matters and it causes these emotions. He allowed himself to fall in love with his school, team, and community.

 


The Weekly Shiny Penny

KC Concepcion has a speech impediment, a stutter. He got ridicule and backlash for it at the combine. What a crappy world we live in. Good for Concepcion for releasing this statement and standing up for himself and others like him.

 

 

A Penny For My Final Thoughts… 

Some thoughts from the combine…

  • Drew Allar’s arm strength and size only has to impress one NFL GM enough to take him in the first round. I’m not saying it will happen, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it did.
  • The combine is a generally stupid exercise, but receivers can certainly show off their speed and hands.
  • Trying to read into the interviews because of tone and volume seems idiotic.
  • The players really do control the narrative by participating in what they want to participate in.

Some Pirates thoughts…

  • Konnor Griffin’s home runs just sound different.
  • The Pirates should trade Spencer Horowitz, move Ryan O’Hearn permanently to first base, and insert Jake Mangum in the starting lineup.
  • Mangum must start and lead off until he proves he can’t handle it.
  • Cross every finger you have that Paul Skenes comes out of the WBC unscathed.
  • If Henry Davis can just hit .225…
  • Is Dennis Santana really going to be the closer?
Just my two cents…